dying breed that is Ingrid.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2007
...HOSTILE WINDS ALOFT TAKING A TOLL ON INGRID...REDUCED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH A FEW SQUALLS...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT
510 MILES...820 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N...53.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
AN UPPER-LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER...HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER INGRID. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS DETERIORATED AND INGRID IS BECOMING A JUST LARGE SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS AS INDICATED BY A NOAA
AIRCRAFT AND BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT...AND BASED ON DATA FROM THESE
OBSERVING TOOLS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30
KNOTS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
EVEN FURTHER...SO IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT INGRID WILL MOST LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MAIN
REASON INGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...WITHOUT FORECASTING DISSIPATION...IS BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION WHICH TRAVERSES THE BAND OF STRONG
WESTERLIES. SOME MODELS...INCLUDING ALL VERSIONS OF SHIPS...SUGGEST
A SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF INGRID BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OPEN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OR SWIRL HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE
CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...IT IS BECOMING STEERED BY THE FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND A
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY...AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF INGRID SHOULD BE PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A DAY OR TWO. IN
FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
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