Subtropical Depression 10 Forms In Gulf of Mexico

This is the same system that brought the tornado to Central Florida on
September 20, 2007.
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
10:00 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10:00 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
REPEATING THE 10:00 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1:00 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4:00
PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTERMITTENT
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
PRESENT PROBABLY STRAINS THE DEFINITION A BIT...BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED A SMALL
CIRCULATION CENTER A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF APALACHICOLA...BUT
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER-SCALE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AS WELL
AS THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW ALOFT...PROVIDE THE RATIONALE FOR A
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON A TRACK NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
COASTLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A LANDFALL
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT IN ANY EVENT THE CENTER OF A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT. MOST OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS WELL-DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.
THE UPPER-LOW IS FRAGMENTING...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY SLIDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AS WELL AS ITS POOR ORGANIZATION...SHOULD PREVENT
EXCESSIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL INTENSITY MODELS ALL SHOW
DEVELOPMENT TO A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WHICH MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE TO THIS SITUATION...
FORECAST LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A
COMPROMISE AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS.