Special Weather Statement
Woodson (Kansas)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
358 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
WOODSON-
358 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR WOODSON COUNTY...
AT 353 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TORONTO...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YATES
CENTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Special Weather Statement For ELK, MONTGOMERY, WILSON Counties
Special Weather Statement
Elk (Kansas)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
408 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
ELK-MONTGOMERY-WILSON-
408 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR ELK...MONTGOMERY AND WILSON COUNTIES...
AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF ELK CITY...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FREDONIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Elk (Kansas)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
408 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
ELK-MONTGOMERY-WILSON-
408 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR ELK...MONTGOMERY AND WILSON COUNTIES...
AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF ELK CITY...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FREDONIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning-Jonson County, Kansas
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Johnson (Kansas)
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
409 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT
* AT 405 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AS WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR EDGERTON...AND RACING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GARDNER BY 415 PM CDT.
OLATHE BY 420 PM CDT.
LENEXA BY 430 PM CDT.
OVERLAND PARK...LEAWOOD AND COUNTRYSIDE BY 435 PM CDT.
PRAIRIE VILLAGE...MISSION HILLS...FAIRWAY AND WESTWOOD BY 440 PM
CDT.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Johnson (Kansas)
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
409 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT
* AT 405 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AS WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR EDGERTON...AND RACING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GARDNER BY 415 PM CDT.
OLATHE BY 420 PM CDT.
LENEXA BY 430 PM CDT.
OVERLAND PARK...LEAWOOD AND COUNTRYSIDE BY 435 PM CDT.
PRAIRIE VILLAGE...MISSION HILLS...FAIRWAY AND WESTWOOD BY 440 PM
CDT.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
A Story About The Storm That Destroyed Bonnie's Home Town
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Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Short Story-A Tribute To Storm Chasers And Spotters
The Sun, The Rain, The Palm Tree And The Storm Chaser
Up Close And Personal
Heat fills the air as haze covers the expanse of the Tuesday afternoon, summer time, Southwestern Florida sky. Over time, a growing row of heaping cotton ball like cloud formations line up along the distant horizon. Not tolong after this, the sun winds up being completely overtaken by a thickcloud canopy. Once the clouds begin covering it over like a heavy blanket,the smoggy sky is no longer visible either.
Eventually the heat gives way to a cool refreshing breeze that getsstronger with each passing moment. Spits of rain fill the air as the cloudsdarken even more. The more the clouds would build, the harder the windwould blow.
The gathering storm stands as a backdrop to someone waiting poised in the foreground. A brown haired man, wearing a white buttoned up, short sleved shirt and dark blue jeans, with an average build, stands next to a white full size traveling van. He wants to enjoy the sight, but the weather grows too unsafe to stand out in the midst of the action.
"Just a few snapshots, and then I will head inside", The man says tohimself. "Wow! This is better than I thought!" He says out loud as thesky gets swollowed up in a dark shroud of deep blackness. "No time to jotin the notebook, got to get to safety!" he states out loud as the stormgrows larger.
Once inside his house, the man continues watching the sky, waiting with batedbreath for something more to happen. Then in comes the storm like a fraittrain, causing both the pine and palm trees in his backyard to double overto the right. "There she is, the seabreeze boundary formation I've beenwaiting for to arrive!" He says aloud to the world, all the while stillwatching out the window with his brown eyes fixed on the storm brewingoutside.
Then, without warning, the storm stawker comes alive in him as hereaches for his trusty digital camera. "Two more pics, that's all I need!"He thought to himself. Then, as he grabs his last swig of iced tea, he seesa familiar sight.
To his wonder, he spots a long and twisted ropelike image dangling overhis backyard like a carrot hanging suspended in front of a rabbit. "Oh Wow!A Tornado!" He shouted while perched in his livingroom chair. He grabs hisvideo camera this time and heads back outside his house. "It's better to snag moving photography for this instead of taking still pics!" He tells himself.
Just as he begins filming this latest subject, it disappears asfast as it arrives. He wishes it could stay longer, but he knows that the neighbors wouldn't feel the same. "What a strange dilemma!" He thought to himself.
The silence, that fills the air after the storm's passage, is broken up bythe sound of kids crying loudly. He turns his head to the sounds and witnesses a blond haired woman wearing a yellow sun-suit walking around surveying what the storm did to her home. Hee sees the same distruction that this tornado brought forth to them.
Upon seeing this situation at hand, he goes to the sobbing woman tooffer his support. She turns and sees he has a video camera in his lefthand. She gets rather upset and yells at him to leave them alone. "What are you! One of those nutty storm chasers? If you are, then I want you away from me! You people are monsters! You prey off of other people's sufferings!" She exclaimes loudlly.
Our Storm Chaser friend defends his position by stating, "Ma'am, I won't lie to you, In spite of all this, I still enjoy being a storm chaser. I've been through these myself, and I know what they can do. My goal is to educate people on what happens when tornados hit." He states calmly.
In spite of his attempts to comfort her, she didn't want to listen. All she wanted to do was sob. She hangs herhead and walks away from him. After this, he walks back inside his house toupload his catch of the day to his handy laptop.
Storm Chaser Becomes Hurricane Stawker For A Day
The summer storms are long over and boardom has settled in upon ourstorm chaser pal like a heavy mist over the land. Hope seems all but lostuntil one day this same gentleman hears about something that awakens him deep inside his soul. He writes in his journal, "There's a large hurricanenearby, and I'm going Hurricane Hunting with the NHC!" He goes onto write,"Yes, the long hot summer is over and now it's time to focus on what the fall has for us!" He states with much excitement.
Finally, that day arrives! He hops onboard a large jumbo airplane, amilitary style bomber craft. The ride starts out being smooth like silk."Is this the life or what?" He says as he and crew enter the monster fromthe deep. "Whoo-Hoo!" He exclaims.
He, along with the NHC crew, fly up and down through the storm. Theymove around and from side to side through the monster cyclone. After awhile, the ride winds up becoming turbulant and bumpy as they move deeperinto the storm's center.
He states on his video recording, "We're hitting large updrafts as weapproach the hurricane's narrow eye-wall area. Now we are flying through thestorm's calm eye. What an incredible stadium look to this eye-wall structure! There's a part of me that's wishing I could push it away from Florida's mainland, and yet I wish this storm would hit our area hard at the same time. Even if the storm never hits land, I'll at least have the memory of the event forever in my mind."
Winter's Pain With Hidden Bliss
Now that summer's long gone, and the temps are much more bearable, theweather will be less active right? Wrong! Our storm chaser friend has beenscanning the weather service forecast data for more possible action. "A storm chaser's work is never done, even if you're sitting in your home office with the windows open and a nice breeze blowing in off the Gulf of Mexico." He states.
While scanning the weather information, he spots something that catches his attention. "Woo! Looks as if North Florida will be seeing some convective action in the next day or so. If I start early, I can be there in time." He says with great assurance.
After carrying out his scanning duties, hedecides to begin the doting task of packing. He grabs plastic storagecontainers that are filled with video discs and places them in the back seatof his van. Then it's off to the closet to pack some essentials. Once the travel bag had been closed up, now it was time to gather up things like thedigital camera, movie camera, laptop computer, portable GPS tracker, Doppler radar scope and weather scanner. "Looks like we have a date with destiny!" He thought.
After a bit of time on his traveling journey, our storm chaser fellow is beginning to take notice of the surrounding area. He thinks to himself, "It's early evening in mid February, and The sun is slowly setting behind a thin cap of high clouds. The air is unusually warm and moist as well." After noticing this, he pullsover to the side of the road to jot notes in his log.
He writes, "Rising deep level moisture, Giving way to uppper level cold top layers, Marked by high Cirrus, with lower strato-cumulus undercasting. Southwesterly low level wind, with reports of upper level Northwesterly winds from approaching cold front. Southeasterly shear at mid levels... Looks like all conditions are just right for quite a severe weather situation."
After writing in his journal, he starts off to the main location ofgreatest concern. Upon arriving to where the Storm Prediction Center indicates the heart of convection, he decides to stop off somewhere for dinner. "I'll take another look at the map data once I get inside the diner." He says to himself.
A tiny, dimly lit eating area sits quietly on the street corner close to the main highway. This nearly empty diner's interior was bathed in shades of tans and browns. The only people there, other than a young teenage waiter, were afamily of six. A Mother, Father and four children. This family remindedhim of the families he's grown up with while living in the Mid West.
This young waiter brings our storm chaser friend a menu. While he's taking the order down, he stares glumly as he watches this storm chaser looking constantly at his radar scanner. Meanwhile, our storm chaser friend winds up reminiscing about a past long ago left behind as he carries out his tasks. "Nothing showing up yet, but it will be soon.. After all, the heavier cloud bank is now rolling in from the northwest." He thought.
As the waiter is taking his order, a loud, blaring sound could be heardfrom somewhere in the back of the diner. The young fellow quickly grabs hisnotepad and leaves the dining area. At this point, our storm chaser friendis jotting down more notes in his log. "Is that a NOAA radio I hear? Yes,because the NWS is speaking something! Also, the signal going off, it came from a NOAA weather alert radio!"The waiter returns with some water and iced tea on his carrying tray. "Sir, we are under a Tornado Watch until 1:00 a.m. local time." Said the waiter frantically.
Our Storm Chaser buddy states the following, "I just saw that on my NWS tracker. I'm a storm chaser, storm spotter and meteorologist, and new this wascoming. I've been following these storms, especially tornados, for quite a long time now. It looks like trouble, so I'd stay up on the weather if I were you." The conversation abruptly ends when the waiter looks at him with a blank stair, and then walks off to check on his meal.
A Chance Incounter
While he, that is our storm chaser pal, awaits the arrival of his meal, he sits watching this young family of six. He's also thinking about how his inspiration to follow after storms came from a lecture he'd heard in school as a child. He jots in his journal, "I'm sitting here in this diner, and while I wait for dinner to arrive, I'm looking at this beautiful family sitting across the room from me. They seem to be so wrapped up in their own little world, that I don't think they know about the bad weather to come. Perhaps I should warn them!"
Before the waiter brings along the meal, our storm chaser friend decides to go over and introduce himself. "Hello there!" He states with a friendly voice.
This fine family stops their conversation to return the salutation. "Why hello to you too! Are you from around here?"
Well, I'm from the Tampa Bay area, but I'm originally from Saint Louis, Missouri. My name is Andrew and I am a storm chaser and spotter."
They chat for a time until Andrew's meal arrives. He walks away, but not without sheding a tear. He thinks, "Oh, that poor fellow! I wonder if he still thinks about his family?"
After having a wonderful, but filling dinner, our storm chaser buddy isoff to chase the skies of north Florida. "Let's see what we can find! Ithink we'll find much because much will happen!"
After darkness settles in for the night, Andrew steps into his van and scans the portable Doppler for precipitation echos. Sure enough, hefinds them. The bad news is they've been gathering up in an area that issouth of his current location.
He then says to himself, "I've gotta step on it so I can get to thosestorms before they pass me by!" "Maybe there will be a large tornado that Ican study this time. No, but I just hope it stays away from towns along theway." He says.
Just in front of him, in a baby blue SUV, rides the family that had been in the diner with him. They were seemingly heading in the same direction as himself. He thinks that to be rather interesting. Oh, but of course, he keeps thinking about that fellow that spoke at his Saint Louis grade school, wondering all the while how this fellow is holding up these days.
Hitting The Jackpot!
While this is taking place, he's listening to his NOAA radio scanner forupdates. He's driving south, in the hopes of staying ahead of theapproaching squall line. Instead, he discovers that the line is moving faster than he is.
Before he knows it, splotches of water start forming on his windshield. As time went along, the rain began to get heavier. Then, out of the blue, aflash of pink lightning splits the darkness of the night sky. "Wow! Lookslike the storm's on it's way!" He thought.
He pulls over to the side of the road to check his Doppler radar scope. Looking down, he sees a large and growing mass of deepening convection. He pulls out his notebook and begins jotting down more information.
He writes, "Deepening storm cell just to the southwest of my current location...Looking at Doppler radar and seeing supercell growth with a growing spiral like circulation. That cell is certain to have a tornado at it's southern portion for sure!"
At this point, he steps on the gas and heads southwest to meat up withthe approaching storm. As he does, the rain gets heavier. Small pellits ofhail begin pelting the van, creating a tinging sound as they hit. Moreflashes of bright lightning begin to happen in more frequent spirts, bustingthrough the night like darts of fiery white light.
Beyond the lightning, and all the rain, something rare pops up in thesky justin front of him. His brown eyes darken as he watches this strangesight. "Oh boy! It's a Wall Cloud! We're in business now!" He exclaimes.
It seems like, but for just a moment, that things were calming down atad. He knows though, this is just the beginning of things to come. "It's only a matter of time before a tornado touches down!" He thought.
He stops the van and steps out to begin his surveying of the situation. Then suddenly, he begins noticing several things. First, he takes note of the utter calmness around himself. Secondly, his eyes were fixated on how the lightning had changed from a cloud-to-ground form, to a "streaking within the clouds" pattern. Then last, but not least, he begins feeling super heated air rising up around himself. He jumps backward from it, knowing what that means, and what would happennext.
Sure enough, there formed in front of him, a spiraling dustcloud. Thistime, instead of reaching for his notebook, he grabs his video camera. While he's filming this, a swirling gust of wind pushes him against his van. Unphased by this minor setback, he continues filming this vortex as it slowlygathers strength.
He stands by and watches as the funnel gets larger. As it does, smallerfunnels break away from the larger structure. Then it begins movingnortheast inside the squall line, which has otherwise thinned out in otherlocations.
Tracking this was rather easy for him. Just another typical supercellstorm. He travels northeast, following the tornado as it tears up the ground beneeth it. "The travel time of this tornado was nearly 5 minutes! Wow!" He thought. While following this massive storm, he calls in to report to the NWS what was happening.
After a while, he lost track of it. This was due to it's jumping overthe roadway and reforming away from his present location. He'd have to runafter it and try to catch up with it on foot, which would be animpossibility. All he could do at this point is take what he had and headhome.
The Lesson From The Journey
The next morning, he awakens to learn that ten souls were lost in thevery tornado he had been chasing. The words shoot from his four speaker audio system stereo like daggers stabbing him in his heart. Tears wind up running down his face as the announcer speaks.
He thinks to himself, "I am a storm chaser, but I'm not a heartlessmonster like my nextdoor neighbor thinks I am. I just want to help educatefolks, not hurt them. I do more than chase storms anyways! Besides, I'm doing this for the man that spoke at my school. Well, we've got to do what we've got to do, no matterwhat!"
After arriving back home later on that day, he uploads all the pics andvideo shots to his laptop. He crops, records and saves all the footage,carefully preserving every detail. All the while thinking about those tensouls that parished in the storm, the family from the diner and the fellow that spoke before his grade school science class.
So, as he always does, he dedicates his DVD to those that were lost tothe very tornado he chased after. All the while hoping that other lives would be saved in the future.
OKC Weather/Approaching Storm
It is 7:30 AM and we have an approaching storm which runs almost the length of Oklahoma.
I awoke to thunder and soon saw lightening. It was right at daybreak. Shortly after that, appeared a beautiful rainbow to my NW. I grabbed the camera and got some shots of it. I tried capturing the eagle flying across the rainbow but my camera speed was to slow and there were trees in the backdrop. Soon the sun shone brightly and the rainbow faded into a black sky. The sun is now gone and the sky has begun to lighten.
The thunderstorms are moving NE at 20 mph bringing a cooler front with strong North winds behind it. At 8:10 AM, we received a report of a severe thunderstorm warning. Radar indicated the storm was moving NE through Noble county at 20 mph. It contains penny size hail and 65 mph winds. Another report: This one is for Kingfisher county which is the county to my West. It also contains hail but only 50 mph winds. My area is still cloudy with no rain but the storm is still approaching. The temperature is 74 degrees with 71% humidity.
Monday, September 24, 2007
NWS Festival Coming plus Weather 100 Years Ago
NWS Norman News
2007 National Weather Festival (9/1/2007 2:00 pm CDT) The Norman Chamber of Commerce's Weather Committee will host the 3rd Annual National Weather Festival from 9 am to 1 pm CDT on Saturday, October 20, 2007 at the National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., in Norman, Oklahoma. The free public event will feature tours, children's activities, a storm chaser car show, displays by local businesses, weather-related seminars, Science on a Sphere, and hourly weather balloon launches. More information is available here.
Oklahoma will celebrate its 100th anniversary of statehood on November 16, 2007. In anticipation of the upcoming anniversary, the National Weather Service is looking back at the significant impact weather has played in the state's first 100 years. From devastating tornadoes to crippling ice storms, from drought and the dust bowl years to floods, Oklahoma's weather is always changing, and always a topic of conversation. Join us as we look back at 100 years of Oklahoma's fascinating weather.
NWS Norman would like to thank the Oklahoma Climatological Survey for their data and assistance in compiling this historical data. We would also like to express our appreciation to the Oklahoma Historical Society for the use of their facilities and historical records. For more information about the Oklahoma Centennial celebration, visit the Oklahoma Centennial web site.
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Oklahoma Weather Conditions 100 Years Ago for
September 24, 1907
Late September was a dry period across Oklahoma and the Indian territories, and September 24th was no exception. No rain was reported across the region. Afternoon highs once again climbed into the 90s at most locations.
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Oklahoma Weather History during the Past 100 Years for
September 24
In 1992, a total of 16 tornadoes occurred during the entire month of September. This was the largest number of tornadoes occurring during the month of September in the latter half of the 20th century.
2007 National Weather Festival (9/1/2007 2:00 pm CDT) The Norman Chamber of Commerce's Weather Committee will host the 3rd Annual National Weather Festival from 9 am to 1 pm CDT on Saturday, October 20, 2007 at the National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., in Norman, Oklahoma. The free public event will feature tours, children's activities, a storm chaser car show, displays by local businesses, weather-related seminars, Science on a Sphere, and hourly weather balloon launches. More information is available here.
Oklahoma will celebrate its 100th anniversary of statehood on November 16, 2007. In anticipation of the upcoming anniversary, the National Weather Service is looking back at the significant impact weather has played in the state's first 100 years. From devastating tornadoes to crippling ice storms, from drought and the dust bowl years to floods, Oklahoma's weather is always changing, and always a topic of conversation. Join us as we look back at 100 years of Oklahoma's fascinating weather.
NWS Norman would like to thank the Oklahoma Climatological Survey for their data and assistance in compiling this historical data. We would also like to express our appreciation to the Oklahoma Historical Society for the use of their facilities and historical records. For more information about the Oklahoma Centennial celebration, visit the Oklahoma Centennial web site.
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Oklahoma Weather Conditions 100 Years Ago for
September 24, 1907
Late September was a dry period across Oklahoma and the Indian territories, and September 24th was no exception. No rain was reported across the region. Afternoon highs once again climbed into the 90s at most locations.
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Oklahoma Weather History during the Past 100 Years for
September 24
In 1992, a total of 16 tornadoes occurred during the entire month of September. This was the largest number of tornadoes occurring during the month of September in the latter half of the 20th century.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Subtropical Depression 10 Forms In Gulf of Mexico
This is the same system that brought the tornado to Central Florida on
September 20, 2007.
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
10:00 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10:00 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
REPEATING THE 10:00 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1:00 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4:00
PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTERMITTENT
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
PRESENT PROBABLY STRAINS THE DEFINITION A BIT...BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED A SMALL
CIRCULATION CENTER A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF APALACHICOLA...BUT
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER-SCALE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AS WELL
AS THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW ALOFT...PROVIDE THE RATIONALE FOR A
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON A TRACK NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
COASTLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A LANDFALL
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT IN ANY EVENT THE CENTER OF A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT. MOST OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS WELL-DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.
THE UPPER-LOW IS FRAGMENTING...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY SLIDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AS WELL AS ITS POOR ORGANIZATION...SHOULD PREVENT
EXCESSIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL INTENSITY MODELS ALL SHOW
DEVELOPMENT TO A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WHICH MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE TO THIS SITUATION...
FORECAST LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A
COMPROMISE AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS.
September 20, 2007.
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
10:00 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10:00 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
REPEATING THE 10:00 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1:00 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4:00
PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTERMITTENT
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
PRESENT PROBABLY STRAINS THE DEFINITION A BIT...BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED A SMALL
CIRCULATION CENTER A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF APALACHICOLA...BUT
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER-SCALE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AS WELL
AS THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW ALOFT...PROVIDE THE RATIONALE FOR A
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON A TRACK NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
COASTLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A LANDFALL
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT IN ANY EVENT THE CENTER OF A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT. MOST OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS WELL-DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.
THE UPPER-LOW IS FRAGMENTING...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY SLIDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AS WELL AS ITS POOR ORGANIZATION...SHOULD PREVENT
EXCESSIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL INTENSITY MODELS ALL SHOW
DEVELOPMENT TO A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WHICH MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE TO THIS SITUATION...
FORECAST LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A
COMPROMISE AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS.
Greensburg, Kansas Tornado by Tim Potter
This article was written by Tim Potter. I found it very interesting although it occured on May 4, 2007 I have not changed anything in his article.
Bonnie (stormspotter)
Norman and Beverly Volz,
May 4 began as a day of quiet celebration. Bev had just finished seven weeks of breast cancer radiation and felt optimistic. At their home that Friday night, Bev, 52, and Norman, 54, held hands and smiled at each other. They had been married 33 years.
When tornado sirens blared at about 9:15 p.m., Norman thought the storm would miss the town. Then the power went out, and he couldn't open the front door, the wind was so strong. "Hallway!" he blurted to Bev, and her father, Max McColm, and they rushed to huddle there. Moments later, a piece of metal about 15 feet long and a foot wide, possibly a guardrail, tore into the house. Norman would later blame the "missile"for their injuries.
Across the town of 1,400 people, nearly 1,000 homes exploded. What the Greensburg disaster would show is that when people like Bev desperately needed help, often the first rescuers were fellow neighbors. The professionally trained and equipped rescue crews who rushed in from surrounding towns would depend heavily on civilians in the first
hours after the tornado blasted through.
There were other lessons as well: about the importance of setting up command posts for rescues, about the need to enlist ambulance drivers, about the limitations of cell phones and other communication systems; about the difficulty of accounting for missing people.
The coming storm:
Patsy and Joel Schmidt live 8 miles south of Greensburg. The night of May 4, Patsy, a nurse at a Greensburg clinic, heard warning after warning about the weather. Joel was farming north of town. Patsy's "barn cat," which never came up to the house, clung to the back door. When Patsy, 61, realized the storm was marching closer to Greensburg, her heart started pounding. Her 36-year-old niece, Kim Jacobitz of Nelson, Neb., had arrived in Greensburg that evening with her 2-year-old son and 5-month-old daughter. Kim, who was staying with her mother, is like a daughter to Patsy.
Three miles west of town, on U.S. 54, Ray Stegman, a 43-year-old former Kiowa County sheriff, watched the approaching storm system in his role as storm spotter and part-time county emergency management coordinator.
Stegman monitored the color radar display on his cell phone. After he saw two distinctive hook patterns cross the county line, he radioed 24-year-old Alicia Daniels, a dispatcher in the Kiowa County sheriff's office in Greensburg, and told her to set off the tornado sirens. That was about 9:15 p.m. A few minutes later, he called back to emphasize
something: Leave the sirens on.
On the south side of town, Mabel Schmidt, a retired nurse with braided, silver-gray hair, heard a siren a half block from her home. In the past, the siren would stick sometimes, sounding after a threat had passed. She waited and listened. The siren didn't stop. Visiting was her lder brother, Vernon Guengerich, and staying with her was her 87-year-old sister, Verda Strang.
Verda, a tiny woman, grew anxious. The house didn't have a basement. "We've got to go, Mabel," Verda said. "We've got to go somewhere. " Because Mabel was on the Fellowship Committee at the Greensburg Mennonite Church, she had a key to the building, which had a full basement. The church sat a mile and half north of her home. The three headed that way in Mabel's Dodge Caravan, along with Mabel's pug, Snoopy. In the Youth Room of the church basement, they settled in on a couch. They were the only people taking shelter there.
Seeking shelter at 8:40 that night, at 522 S. Pine, on the southeast side of town, Kim -- the 36-year-old who was visiting at her mother's with her two young children -- talked to her husband, Terre, in Nebraska. "You're not going to believe -- 83 degrees and it's sunny out here, and we're in a tornado watch," Kim told him. "It will be OK," he said. When the sirens sounded, Kim and her mother, 56-year-old Brenda Cradick, took the two children to a spot between old fruit jar shelves in the 70-year-old cellar under the house. Kim sat cross-legged between the cracked walls, breast-feeding 5-month-old Emily.
At the sheriff's emergency dispatch office near the courthouse, 22-year-old dispatcher Toshia Bertram started getting calls from residents wondering if the sirens were for a fire or a tornado. The sirens sound a solid pitch for a tornado, a variable pitch for a fire.
Kiowa County Sheriff Galen Marble, a former senior agent with the Kansas Bureau of Investigation, came into his office to monitor the storm. In the basement at the sheriff's office, a couple dozen townspeople and a dozen jail inmates took shelter.
Watching the sky:
About 18 miles west of Greensburg, Russ Smith, chief of the Ford County Fire and EMS Department, scanned the west side of the storm from Bucklin. Tracking storms is part of Smith's job. The idea is to put emergency crews in place to respond before a storm hits.
Looking east, Smith saw a lightning flash that for an instant illuminated a wall of clouds extending to the ground. The shape -- mainly the extension to the ground -- seemed odd. A few minutes after he glimpsed the strange formation, he heard a call from Ford County emergency dispatch with a brief message: Greensburg took a direct hit. Smith waited a moment for clarification. Sometimes, initial reports can be exaggerated. He wondered: How bad was it hit? After a brief hesitation, without more information, he started driving toward Greensburg with a rescue squad: a fire truck and three ambulances.
East of Mullinville and about four miles from Greensburg, he and the emergency vehicles had to stop because debris was falling. During the delay, he spotted a battered sedan coming from the direction of Greensburg. It looked as if someone had fired shotgun pellets into the metal. The windshield was shattered, the fenders battered. The young couple inside looked dazed. 'Here it comes'
In the old cellar under her mother's house on Pine Street, Kim's ears started popping. When the electricity abruptly went out, Kim's mother, Brenda, blurted out, "That can't be good." Kim pulled baby Emily and 2-year-old Evan close to her. She and Brenda started praying out loud: "Our Father, who art in heaven...." As they prayed, they heard clanging, banging, ripping, cracking outside. "Here it comes," Brenda said anxiously. She had been afraid that the cracked basement walls would come down on them. Brenda threw a blanket on top of Evan and lay stomach-first over him, as a shield, facing Kim. Kim put Emily on a pillow and lay over her, afraid she might smother her but determined to cushion her from the fury above. And then the house blew away. Debris and rain poured in on them. In the rubble, Kim said to Brenda: "Are you alive?" Brenda responded: "Are you OK?" The children cried. Brenda wriggled free, but Kim said she couldn't move. A slab of concrete wall lay atop her. Brenda started yelling for help. Kim pulled her
right foot out of a shoe wedged in the rubble, eased her right leg up and started squirming on her right side. The baby lay next to her on the pillow, screaming, drenched from the rain, splattered with dirt and mortar. Later, they would find only a small cut on the baby's head. The wall that caved in was mixed blessing. Although it came down on Kim, she thought it shielded them from other debris and kept them from being sucked up. Kim managed to get up on her knees, and then she felt pain. Her pelvis was fractured in four places. Her bladder had been compressed. Under her thick and matted dark brown hair was a cut that would require six staples. Brenda tried to call 911 on her cell phone. The call wouldn't go through. When the wind stopped, Brenda yelled out. "We have babies over here! " Soon they saw flashlights and could hear two men and a woman, at least one of them a neighbor, approaching. The men stepped
down into the debris and a calm voice said to Kim: "Honey, you're doing just fine. We're going to get you out of here.
In severe pain, she rested her head on one man's knee. She told them she thought her pelvis or legs were broken, that she couldn't move from the waist down. They found a large plank and gently helped her to lie on it, then strapped her to the board. The woman told her she'd looked over the children; they appeared to be in good shape. Someone brought in a pickup, and the men placed her and the improvised stretcher in the back and put blankets over her.
They took her several blocks to the parking lot outside the wrecked Dillons grocery store, where emergency
workers had set up a triage center. Kim could hear emergency workers calling out medical-condition codes as they quickly assessed the injured being brought in. Code red for critical condition, code green for superficial injuries....
Later, in the ambulance that took her to the Pratt hospital, 30 miles east, she heard a worker call in on the radio and say she was code red.
The earliest response in the first minutes after the tornado hit, as Smith headed with emergency vehicles from Ford County on the west, Mark McManaman led a rescue effort from the east. McManaman, the Pratt County emergency and medical services administrator, encountered a delay at Haviland, about 10 miles east of Greensburg. High winds forced him to wait a few minutes. About that time, he could hear a young person yelling over a Kiowa County fire radio frequency: "We need help! " When McManaman reached the east side of Greensburg on U.S. 54, which bisects the town, he stopped in the debris-strewn highway a few blocks east of the Dillons store. In the darkness, he shined a spotlight, revealing a sea of debris. He sent a rescue truck with four people to set up a triage center at the Dillons. The store was centrally located, with highway access; it was a natural place to assess the injured and load them into ambulances bound for hospitals in Pratt, Dodge City and Wichita. Greensburg's county hospital had been destroyed.
As Stegman, the storm spotter and emergency management coordinator, worked his way into town from the west, he noticed something comforting in the darkness -- a line of emergency-vehicle lights moving toward Greensburg.
Stegman and Jay Koehn, the Kiowa County and Greensburg fire chief, asked McManaman to take over as incident commander. Stegman and Koehn were in a state of shock. Their town and all of its resources had been destroyed. They couldn't help being distracted by their concern over their own families. McManaman, 50, was a logical choice to
lead efforts. He had worked in emergency services for 26 years. His county was larger and had more resources.
But McManaman asked Koehn to stay with him in his Suburban cab and help direct efforts. McManaman didn't know the layout of Greensburg, so he needed Koehn's help directing rescue crews. All electricity was out. It was dark. Street signs were gone. The town's only traffic light, at Main and U.S. 54, had been ripped away. So many buildings and landmarks had been flattened or blown away that even a lifelong resident needed help finding his way.
McManaman needed a map. He quickly found a basic Greensburg street grid in the regional phone book in his truck and handed it to Koehn. As reports and addresses of the injured came over McManaman's emergency radio, Koehn would give him directions, and McManaman would relay that to rescue crews. Main Street became a starting point. From there, rescuers would be directed a certain number of streets north or south and a certain number east or west. Sometimes, crews could get an ambulance or rescue truck down a street. Other times, because of debris, they had
to walk.
On the west side, several rescuers had to carry a severely injured woman, in a rescue basket, about three blocks, winding around debris. It exhausted them. As code-red injury reports mounted, McManaman called for more ambulances. Already, a regional mutual aid system was sending ambulances and rescue crews from surrounding counties. State officials dispatched heavy-rescue crews from Wichita and Sedgwick County. Some emergency crews drove in from Oklahoma.
Radio communication:
With a cell tower downed and land lines knocked out, communication was limited to emergency radios. A firefighter carried a hand-held radio from the east side to the west side so McManaman and Smith could converse from opposite ends of the town. Around the same time, another command post, including law enforcement officials, was setting up at a Kansas Department of Transportation building on the town's east side. So many concerned people, some worried about relatives in town, were walking up to ask McManaman questions, it threatened to interfere with
his efforts to monitor radio traffic and direct rescues. He rolled up his window, and let them approach Koehn, on the passenger side. From his training, McManaman knew that a command post can't effectively lead if it gets too close to the action. Incident commanders have to maintain an overall view and not get sidetracked.
Saving lives first within the first hour came the first reports of deaths. A truck service facility near the KDOT building would eventually become a morgue. Two bodies had been temporarily kept at a roadside bar. Someone asked McManaman what rescuers should do if they found a body as they were trying to save people. He told them to put
an orange cone by the body, to mark it. The bodies could be removed later. First, they had to save people. They had to improvise.
All over town, residents used their vehicles, sometimes with shattered windshields and flat tires, to ferry the injured to the triage center. In the first hour or two after the storm hit, a man approached Ford County sheriff's Capt. Bryan Burgess on the west side of town and asked: "What can I do to help these people? "Burgess, who had driven
his extended-cab truck to Greensburg, told the man: "Transport these people," and threw the man his truck keys.
Through the night, as Burgess helped with rescues, he saw his truck coming and going with injured people and evacuees. Several hours later, when the pace had slowed, Burgess found his keys and truck at a command center, securely left by the volunteer. Burgess didn't know the man, never got to thank him.
There were plenty of ambulances but not always enough drivers. Normally, when an ambulance responds, one paramedic or medical technician treats a patient in the back of the ambulance while another worker drives. That night, there were often two seriously injured patients in the back of each ambulance. The paramedics had to stay in the back with the injured, so in some cases firefighters and others were drafted as ambulance drivers. Many farmers from outside town had quickly brought in equipment to clear streets for emergency crews.
Calling in help
When the tornado hit, Koehn, the 49-year-old fire chief, had been returning to Greensburg from a fishing trip. Six miles west of town, debris rained down around him. His family had an emergency radio in town. "Dad, we're all OK," they told him. "But the house is filling with gas; we can smell it." Get out, he ordered. Even as he pulled up to the west side of town, it seemed as if tornadic winds were still spinning nearby. He specifically called for help from Ford, Comanche and Pratt counties. But crews from many other counties came as well. There's a camaraderie among fire and emergency officials in the region. Every few months, several of them meet for dinner in the town of Protection, southwest
of Greensburg.
For Koehn, one of the hardest things was driving through town past 25 injured people, some with blood on their faces. He had to force himself not to stop and help them. If he had, he would have been committed to treating a relative few individuals. It would have kept him from setting up a command post from which many more people could be helped.
Looking at the wide damage, he thought hundreds of body bags would be needed. In the truck cab where he and McManaman ran the command post, Koehn's mouth kept getting dry even though he drank water constantly. It was stress. At one point, he leaned back and closed his eyes, so he could focus his thoughts. Victims stream in .
At the battered sheriff's office in town, rattled residents streamed in after the tornado hit. One woman was upset because her infant had a knot on the head. Marble, the sheriff, looked over the baby, who seemed OK. He told
the mother to keep the child awake until medical attention was available. A state trooper, one of many who responded, drove a car through debris on at least one flat tire so he could get the woman and the child to an EMS unit. Some residents stumbled into the sheriff's office without shoes. Bertram, the dispatcher, gave one woman her sneakers.
Some changed into orange jail inmate jumpsuits and sandals so they could get out of wet clothes.
Hours later, the inmates, who remained in the basement, were transferred to other jails.
Helping along the way, Patsy Schmidt, the nurse who lived eight miles south of Greensburg, knew people in town would need help. She also felt desperate to reach 522 S. Pine, where her niece and the children were. But because of trees and wires in the roads, it took her an hour to reach the outskirts of Greensburg. Walking south on Main, still wearing her nurse uniform, she heard someone say, "We need some help over here." The voice led her to a woman being transported in a pickup. The woman was suffering from fractures and heavy bleeding and was drifting in and out of consciousness. Patsy took off her pink jacket and bound the clean portion around a wound, to apply pressure. As she checked the woman's other injuries, she told a man to keep pressure on the wound. The injured woman was Bev Volz, a woman Patsy had seen many times over the years. But in those intense moments, Patsy didn't recognize her.
Soon, paramedics took over treating Bev, and Patsy continued on her way. She never got to 522 Pine that night. On the way, someone told her that Kim had been rescued and that the babies were OK. Later that night, Patsy's husband, Joel Schmidt, called with a question: "Have you seen Mom?" He and his brother were looking for her. No one had seen Mabel Schmidt. The 82-year-old's house was gone.
Safe in church
What her relatives didn't know was that Mabel and her brother and sister had gone to the Mennonite Church basement and remained there. They were OK, but rubble in a stairwell blocked their exit. At the church, now only a slab above ground, soaked ceiling tiles began to drop in the basement. It was a long wait for daylight. Vernon, who had lost a leg years before and relied on crutches, used his well-conditioned shoulders and arms to remove debris from the stairwell.
"Oh, don't move too much," Mabel cautioned. The two cleared the way to the first landing, but the rest of the stairwell remained blocked. Still, they could see light and hear noises outside, possibly utility trucks. "Hey!" they yelled, over and over.
Around 10 that morning, Ford County firefighter Justin Swank, 23, learned that someone might be trapped in the area
around the church. Swank, who volunteers as a search dog handler, went there with his German shepherd, Blaze. The Greensburg disaster was the first time that the 16-month-old dog was being pressed into service. He is trained to lead Swank to human scent. Blaze went to a debris pile and, while glancing back at Swank, began to whine. Near an opening in the debris, near what turned out to be the blocked staircase, Blaze started to descend. As workers
cleared some rubble, they quickly found Mabel Schmidt and her brother and sister. They had been trapped for about 12 hours.
Finding the missing
By 3 a.m., residents and fire and rescue crews had searched the town twice. Crews used spray paint to mark each smashed building they checked. They used so much, more cans had to be brought in from other towns. But the debris piles were so massive. They couldn't check every pocket under the layers.
As the hours wore on, the searches became more and more methodical. Crews went house to house, street by street, quadrant by quadrant. It's not clear why it took so long to find Mabel and her siblings in the church basement. Crews had checked the area. But only a slab remained there, and with debris over the stairwell, someone missed it.
It's important in any disaster to build a list of residents to determine who might be missing, authorities say. That night, law enforcement officers and Red Cross workers compiled lists of evacuees as they left town in private vehicles or the school buses bound for shelters. But some residents fled before the tornado, and others left before checkpoints went up, making the accounting difficult.
Mourning the dead
When the long piece of metal and other debris tore into the house of Norman and Bev Volz, it left him with a broken kneecap and her and her father with severe injuries. Norman heard Bev cry out. He and Bev talked back and forth in the rubble, but he later didn't remember what she said, other than that she was in pain. Maybe he blocked it out, he would say later. He stumbled out of the house to get help. Residents took Bev out on a door and put her in a pickup.
An ambulance took her to Dodge City, but Bev didn't survive. After doctors told Norman that she had died, he turned
to a friend and said: "What am I going to do without her?" For 30 minutes, he cried hard.
Sitting in his office at Volz Oil Co. last week, Norman looked weary, still stunned. He smoked cigarette after cigarette.
But his eyes brightened and his voice turned emphatic when he noted that one thing remained untouched by the storm -- their wedding album. Bev was 19 and Norman was 20 when they married in August 1973. They had met at Seward County Community College in Liberal. Bev was "the brains" at the office. A couple of well-fed cats sauntered in and out of the office last week. She loved those cats. A longtime employee at Volz Oil, delivery man Larry Hoskins, 51, also died in the storm. Norman's father-in-law remained unconscious. Everyone suffered.
After the destruction, the state's count for the Greensburg area was 961 homes destroyed, another 105 homes with major damage, and only 67 with minor damage. One loss estimate, covering only insured damage: more than $153 million. Early reports indicated that at least 16 people were in critical condition, and 50 were being treated at hospitals. As of Friday, one man remained in critical condition at Wichita's Via Christi Regional Medical Center-St. Francis Campus, and a woman remained in fair condition at Wichita's Wesley Medical Center. Hospitals in Pratt and Dodge City had released all tornado victims.
The Greensburg death toll reached 10 -- with another three killed by other tornadoes in the area that weekend -- but people said over and over that it was amazing that many more didn't died. Residents and rescue officials credited the sirens and the long warning for saving perhaps hundreds of lives. Many people responded by hunkering down in Greensburg's many basements, although in some cases a basement didn't prevent fatal injuries. The disaster showed that even stout buildings with tons of brick and cured lumber that had weathered storms for more than a century couldn't withstand the EF5 tornado's 205-mph winds.
The emergency response showed that crews could mobilize, converge, coordinate and evacuate the injured
from a central location. And that in a widespread emergency, neighbors become the true first responders. I think everybody did what they could," Norman said. "Every able-bodied resident was trying to help somebody, or looking for somebody to help.
"
Reach Tim Potter at 316-268-6684 or HYPERLINK "mailto: tpotter@wichitaeagle.com"
© 2007 Wichita Eagle and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved.
HYPERLINK "http://www.kansas.com" http://www.kansas.com
Bonnie (stormspotter)
Norman and Beverly Volz,
May 4 began as a day of quiet celebration. Bev had just finished seven weeks of breast cancer radiation and felt optimistic. At their home that Friday night, Bev, 52, and Norman, 54, held hands and smiled at each other. They had been married 33 years.
When tornado sirens blared at about 9:15 p.m., Norman thought the storm would miss the town. Then the power went out, and he couldn't open the front door, the wind was so strong. "Hallway!" he blurted to Bev, and her father, Max McColm, and they rushed to huddle there. Moments later, a piece of metal about 15 feet long and a foot wide, possibly a guardrail, tore into the house. Norman would later blame the "missile"for their injuries.
Across the town of 1,400 people, nearly 1,000 homes exploded. What the Greensburg disaster would show is that when people like Bev desperately needed help, often the first rescuers were fellow neighbors. The professionally trained and equipped rescue crews who rushed in from surrounding towns would depend heavily on civilians in the first
hours after the tornado blasted through.
There were other lessons as well: about the importance of setting up command posts for rescues, about the need to enlist ambulance drivers, about the limitations of cell phones and other communication systems; about the difficulty of accounting for missing people.
The coming storm:
Patsy and Joel Schmidt live 8 miles south of Greensburg. The night of May 4, Patsy, a nurse at a Greensburg clinic, heard warning after warning about the weather. Joel was farming north of town. Patsy's "barn cat," which never came up to the house, clung to the back door. When Patsy, 61, realized the storm was marching closer to Greensburg, her heart started pounding. Her 36-year-old niece, Kim Jacobitz of Nelson, Neb., had arrived in Greensburg that evening with her 2-year-old son and 5-month-old daughter. Kim, who was staying with her mother, is like a daughter to Patsy.
Three miles west of town, on U.S. 54, Ray Stegman, a 43-year-old former Kiowa County sheriff, watched the approaching storm system in his role as storm spotter and part-time county emergency management coordinator.
Stegman monitored the color radar display on his cell phone. After he saw two distinctive hook patterns cross the county line, he radioed 24-year-old Alicia Daniels, a dispatcher in the Kiowa County sheriff's office in Greensburg, and told her to set off the tornado sirens. That was about 9:15 p.m. A few minutes later, he called back to emphasize
something: Leave the sirens on.
On the south side of town, Mabel Schmidt, a retired nurse with braided, silver-gray hair, heard a siren a half block from her home. In the past, the siren would stick sometimes, sounding after a threat had passed. She waited and listened. The siren didn't stop. Visiting was her lder brother, Vernon Guengerich, and staying with her was her 87-year-old sister, Verda Strang.
Verda, a tiny woman, grew anxious. The house didn't have a basement. "We've got to go, Mabel," Verda said. "We've got to go somewhere. " Because Mabel was on the Fellowship Committee at the Greensburg Mennonite Church, she had a key to the building, which had a full basement. The church sat a mile and half north of her home. The three headed that way in Mabel's Dodge Caravan, along with Mabel's pug, Snoopy. In the Youth Room of the church basement, they settled in on a couch. They were the only people taking shelter there.
Seeking shelter at 8:40 that night, at 522 S. Pine, on the southeast side of town, Kim -- the 36-year-old who was visiting at her mother's with her two young children -- talked to her husband, Terre, in Nebraska. "You're not going to believe -- 83 degrees and it's sunny out here, and we're in a tornado watch," Kim told him. "It will be OK," he said. When the sirens sounded, Kim and her mother, 56-year-old Brenda Cradick, took the two children to a spot between old fruit jar shelves in the 70-year-old cellar under the house. Kim sat cross-legged between the cracked walls, breast-feeding 5-month-old Emily.
At the sheriff's emergency dispatch office near the courthouse, 22-year-old dispatcher Toshia Bertram started getting calls from residents wondering if the sirens were for a fire or a tornado. The sirens sound a solid pitch for a tornado, a variable pitch for a fire.
Kiowa County Sheriff Galen Marble, a former senior agent with the Kansas Bureau of Investigation, came into his office to monitor the storm. In the basement at the sheriff's office, a couple dozen townspeople and a dozen jail inmates took shelter.
Watching the sky:
About 18 miles west of Greensburg, Russ Smith, chief of the Ford County Fire and EMS Department, scanned the west side of the storm from Bucklin. Tracking storms is part of Smith's job. The idea is to put emergency crews in place to respond before a storm hits.
Looking east, Smith saw a lightning flash that for an instant illuminated a wall of clouds extending to the ground. The shape -- mainly the extension to the ground -- seemed odd. A few minutes after he glimpsed the strange formation, he heard a call from Ford County emergency dispatch with a brief message: Greensburg took a direct hit. Smith waited a moment for clarification. Sometimes, initial reports can be exaggerated. He wondered: How bad was it hit? After a brief hesitation, without more information, he started driving toward Greensburg with a rescue squad: a fire truck and three ambulances.
East of Mullinville and about four miles from Greensburg, he and the emergency vehicles had to stop because debris was falling. During the delay, he spotted a battered sedan coming from the direction of Greensburg. It looked as if someone had fired shotgun pellets into the metal. The windshield was shattered, the fenders battered. The young couple inside looked dazed. 'Here it comes'
In the old cellar under her mother's house on Pine Street, Kim's ears started popping. When the electricity abruptly went out, Kim's mother, Brenda, blurted out, "That can't be good." Kim pulled baby Emily and 2-year-old Evan close to her. She and Brenda started praying out loud: "Our Father, who art in heaven...." As they prayed, they heard clanging, banging, ripping, cracking outside. "Here it comes," Brenda said anxiously. She had been afraid that the cracked basement walls would come down on them. Brenda threw a blanket on top of Evan and lay stomach-first over him, as a shield, facing Kim. Kim put Emily on a pillow and lay over her, afraid she might smother her but determined to cushion her from the fury above. And then the house blew away. Debris and rain poured in on them. In the rubble, Kim said to Brenda: "Are you alive?" Brenda responded: "Are you OK?" The children cried. Brenda wriggled free, but Kim said she couldn't move. A slab of concrete wall lay atop her. Brenda started yelling for help. Kim pulled her
right foot out of a shoe wedged in the rubble, eased her right leg up and started squirming on her right side. The baby lay next to her on the pillow, screaming, drenched from the rain, splattered with dirt and mortar. Later, they would find only a small cut on the baby's head. The wall that caved in was mixed blessing. Although it came down on Kim, she thought it shielded them from other debris and kept them from being sucked up. Kim managed to get up on her knees, and then she felt pain. Her pelvis was fractured in four places. Her bladder had been compressed. Under her thick and matted dark brown hair was a cut that would require six staples. Brenda tried to call 911 on her cell phone. The call wouldn't go through. When the wind stopped, Brenda yelled out. "We have babies over here! " Soon they saw flashlights and could hear two men and a woman, at least one of them a neighbor, approaching. The men stepped
down into the debris and a calm voice said to Kim: "Honey, you're doing just fine. We're going to get you out of here.
In severe pain, she rested her head on one man's knee. She told them she thought her pelvis or legs were broken, that she couldn't move from the waist down. They found a large plank and gently helped her to lie on it, then strapped her to the board. The woman told her she'd looked over the children; they appeared to be in good shape. Someone brought in a pickup, and the men placed her and the improvised stretcher in the back and put blankets over her.
They took her several blocks to the parking lot outside the wrecked Dillons grocery store, where emergency
workers had set up a triage center. Kim could hear emergency workers calling out medical-condition codes as they quickly assessed the injured being brought in. Code red for critical condition, code green for superficial injuries....
Later, in the ambulance that took her to the Pratt hospital, 30 miles east, she heard a worker call in on the radio and say she was code red.
The earliest response in the first minutes after the tornado hit, as Smith headed with emergency vehicles from Ford County on the west, Mark McManaman led a rescue effort from the east. McManaman, the Pratt County emergency and medical services administrator, encountered a delay at Haviland, about 10 miles east of Greensburg. High winds forced him to wait a few minutes. About that time, he could hear a young person yelling over a Kiowa County fire radio frequency: "We need help! " When McManaman reached the east side of Greensburg on U.S. 54, which bisects the town, he stopped in the debris-strewn highway a few blocks east of the Dillons store. In the darkness, he shined a spotlight, revealing a sea of debris. He sent a rescue truck with four people to set up a triage center at the Dillons. The store was centrally located, with highway access; it was a natural place to assess the injured and load them into ambulances bound for hospitals in Pratt, Dodge City and Wichita. Greensburg's county hospital had been destroyed.
As Stegman, the storm spotter and emergency management coordinator, worked his way into town from the west, he noticed something comforting in the darkness -- a line of emergency-vehicle lights moving toward Greensburg.
Stegman and Jay Koehn, the Kiowa County and Greensburg fire chief, asked McManaman to take over as incident commander. Stegman and Koehn were in a state of shock. Their town and all of its resources had been destroyed. They couldn't help being distracted by their concern over their own families. McManaman, 50, was a logical choice to
lead efforts. He had worked in emergency services for 26 years. His county was larger and had more resources.
But McManaman asked Koehn to stay with him in his Suburban cab and help direct efforts. McManaman didn't know the layout of Greensburg, so he needed Koehn's help directing rescue crews. All electricity was out. It was dark. Street signs were gone. The town's only traffic light, at Main and U.S. 54, had been ripped away. So many buildings and landmarks had been flattened or blown away that even a lifelong resident needed help finding his way.
McManaman needed a map. He quickly found a basic Greensburg street grid in the regional phone book in his truck and handed it to Koehn. As reports and addresses of the injured came over McManaman's emergency radio, Koehn would give him directions, and McManaman would relay that to rescue crews. Main Street became a starting point. From there, rescuers would be directed a certain number of streets north or south and a certain number east or west. Sometimes, crews could get an ambulance or rescue truck down a street. Other times, because of debris, they had
to walk.
On the west side, several rescuers had to carry a severely injured woman, in a rescue basket, about three blocks, winding around debris. It exhausted them. As code-red injury reports mounted, McManaman called for more ambulances. Already, a regional mutual aid system was sending ambulances and rescue crews from surrounding counties. State officials dispatched heavy-rescue crews from Wichita and Sedgwick County. Some emergency crews drove in from Oklahoma.
Radio communication:
With a cell tower downed and land lines knocked out, communication was limited to emergency radios. A firefighter carried a hand-held radio from the east side to the west side so McManaman and Smith could converse from opposite ends of the town. Around the same time, another command post, including law enforcement officials, was setting up at a Kansas Department of Transportation building on the town's east side. So many concerned people, some worried about relatives in town, were walking up to ask McManaman questions, it threatened to interfere with
his efforts to monitor radio traffic and direct rescues. He rolled up his window, and let them approach Koehn, on the passenger side. From his training, McManaman knew that a command post can't effectively lead if it gets too close to the action. Incident commanders have to maintain an overall view and not get sidetracked.
Saving lives first within the first hour came the first reports of deaths. A truck service facility near the KDOT building would eventually become a morgue. Two bodies had been temporarily kept at a roadside bar. Someone asked McManaman what rescuers should do if they found a body as they were trying to save people. He told them to put
an orange cone by the body, to mark it. The bodies could be removed later. First, they had to save people. They had to improvise.
All over town, residents used their vehicles, sometimes with shattered windshields and flat tires, to ferry the injured to the triage center. In the first hour or two after the storm hit, a man approached Ford County sheriff's Capt. Bryan Burgess on the west side of town and asked: "What can I do to help these people? "Burgess, who had driven
his extended-cab truck to Greensburg, told the man: "Transport these people," and threw the man his truck keys.
Through the night, as Burgess helped with rescues, he saw his truck coming and going with injured people and evacuees. Several hours later, when the pace had slowed, Burgess found his keys and truck at a command center, securely left by the volunteer. Burgess didn't know the man, never got to thank him.
There were plenty of ambulances but not always enough drivers. Normally, when an ambulance responds, one paramedic or medical technician treats a patient in the back of the ambulance while another worker drives. That night, there were often two seriously injured patients in the back of each ambulance. The paramedics had to stay in the back with the injured, so in some cases firefighters and others were drafted as ambulance drivers. Many farmers from outside town had quickly brought in equipment to clear streets for emergency crews.
Calling in help
When the tornado hit, Koehn, the 49-year-old fire chief, had been returning to Greensburg from a fishing trip. Six miles west of town, debris rained down around him. His family had an emergency radio in town. "Dad, we're all OK," they told him. "But the house is filling with gas; we can smell it." Get out, he ordered. Even as he pulled up to the west side of town, it seemed as if tornadic winds were still spinning nearby. He specifically called for help from Ford, Comanche and Pratt counties. But crews from many other counties came as well. There's a camaraderie among fire and emergency officials in the region. Every few months, several of them meet for dinner in the town of Protection, southwest
of Greensburg.
For Koehn, one of the hardest things was driving through town past 25 injured people, some with blood on their faces. He had to force himself not to stop and help them. If he had, he would have been committed to treating a relative few individuals. It would have kept him from setting up a command post from which many more people could be helped.
Looking at the wide damage, he thought hundreds of body bags would be needed. In the truck cab where he and McManaman ran the command post, Koehn's mouth kept getting dry even though he drank water constantly. It was stress. At one point, he leaned back and closed his eyes, so he could focus his thoughts. Victims stream in .
At the battered sheriff's office in town, rattled residents streamed in after the tornado hit. One woman was upset because her infant had a knot on the head. Marble, the sheriff, looked over the baby, who seemed OK. He told
the mother to keep the child awake until medical attention was available. A state trooper, one of many who responded, drove a car through debris on at least one flat tire so he could get the woman and the child to an EMS unit. Some residents stumbled into the sheriff's office without shoes. Bertram, the dispatcher, gave one woman her sneakers.
Some changed into orange jail inmate jumpsuits and sandals so they could get out of wet clothes.
Hours later, the inmates, who remained in the basement, were transferred to other jails.
Helping along the way, Patsy Schmidt, the nurse who lived eight miles south of Greensburg, knew people in town would need help. She also felt desperate to reach 522 S. Pine, where her niece and the children were. But because of trees and wires in the roads, it took her an hour to reach the outskirts of Greensburg. Walking south on Main, still wearing her nurse uniform, she heard someone say, "We need some help over here." The voice led her to a woman being transported in a pickup. The woman was suffering from fractures and heavy bleeding and was drifting in and out of consciousness. Patsy took off her pink jacket and bound the clean portion around a wound, to apply pressure. As she checked the woman's other injuries, she told a man to keep pressure on the wound. The injured woman was Bev Volz, a woman Patsy had seen many times over the years. But in those intense moments, Patsy didn't recognize her.
Soon, paramedics took over treating Bev, and Patsy continued on her way. She never got to 522 Pine that night. On the way, someone told her that Kim had been rescued and that the babies were OK. Later that night, Patsy's husband, Joel Schmidt, called with a question: "Have you seen Mom?" He and his brother were looking for her. No one had seen Mabel Schmidt. The 82-year-old's house was gone.
Safe in church
What her relatives didn't know was that Mabel and her brother and sister had gone to the Mennonite Church basement and remained there. They were OK, but rubble in a stairwell blocked their exit. At the church, now only a slab above ground, soaked ceiling tiles began to drop in the basement. It was a long wait for daylight. Vernon, who had lost a leg years before and relied on crutches, used his well-conditioned shoulders and arms to remove debris from the stairwell.
"Oh, don't move too much," Mabel cautioned. The two cleared the way to the first landing, but the rest of the stairwell remained blocked. Still, they could see light and hear noises outside, possibly utility trucks. "Hey!" they yelled, over and over.
Around 10 that morning, Ford County firefighter Justin Swank, 23, learned that someone might be trapped in the area
around the church. Swank, who volunteers as a search dog handler, went there with his German shepherd, Blaze. The Greensburg disaster was the first time that the 16-month-old dog was being pressed into service. He is trained to lead Swank to human scent. Blaze went to a debris pile and, while glancing back at Swank, began to whine. Near an opening in the debris, near what turned out to be the blocked staircase, Blaze started to descend. As workers
cleared some rubble, they quickly found Mabel Schmidt and her brother and sister. They had been trapped for about 12 hours.
Finding the missing
By 3 a.m., residents and fire and rescue crews had searched the town twice. Crews used spray paint to mark each smashed building they checked. They used so much, more cans had to be brought in from other towns. But the debris piles were so massive. They couldn't check every pocket under the layers.
As the hours wore on, the searches became more and more methodical. Crews went house to house, street by street, quadrant by quadrant. It's not clear why it took so long to find Mabel and her siblings in the church basement. Crews had checked the area. But only a slab remained there, and with debris over the stairwell, someone missed it.
It's important in any disaster to build a list of residents to determine who might be missing, authorities say. That night, law enforcement officers and Red Cross workers compiled lists of evacuees as they left town in private vehicles or the school buses bound for shelters. But some residents fled before the tornado, and others left before checkpoints went up, making the accounting difficult.
Mourning the dead
When the long piece of metal and other debris tore into the house of Norman and Bev Volz, it left him with a broken kneecap and her and her father with severe injuries. Norman heard Bev cry out. He and Bev talked back and forth in the rubble, but he later didn't remember what she said, other than that she was in pain. Maybe he blocked it out, he would say later. He stumbled out of the house to get help. Residents took Bev out on a door and put her in a pickup.
An ambulance took her to Dodge City, but Bev didn't survive. After doctors told Norman that she had died, he turned
to a friend and said: "What am I going to do without her?" For 30 minutes, he cried hard.
Sitting in his office at Volz Oil Co. last week, Norman looked weary, still stunned. He smoked cigarette after cigarette.
But his eyes brightened and his voice turned emphatic when he noted that one thing remained untouched by the storm -- their wedding album. Bev was 19 and Norman was 20 when they married in August 1973. They had met at Seward County Community College in Liberal. Bev was "the brains" at the office. A couple of well-fed cats sauntered in and out of the office last week. She loved those cats. A longtime employee at Volz Oil, delivery man Larry Hoskins, 51, also died in the storm. Norman's father-in-law remained unconscious. Everyone suffered.
After the destruction, the state's count for the Greensburg area was 961 homes destroyed, another 105 homes with major damage, and only 67 with minor damage. One loss estimate, covering only insured damage: more than $153 million. Early reports indicated that at least 16 people were in critical condition, and 50 were being treated at hospitals. As of Friday, one man remained in critical condition at Wichita's Via Christi Regional Medical Center-St. Francis Campus, and a woman remained in fair condition at Wichita's Wesley Medical Center. Hospitals in Pratt and Dodge City had released all tornado victims.
The Greensburg death toll reached 10 -- with another three killed by other tornadoes in the area that weekend -- but people said over and over that it was amazing that many more didn't died. Residents and rescue officials credited the sirens and the long warning for saving perhaps hundreds of lives. Many people responded by hunkering down in Greensburg's many basements, although in some cases a basement didn't prevent fatal injuries. The disaster showed that even stout buildings with tons of brick and cured lumber that had weathered storms for more than a century couldn't withstand the EF5 tornado's 205-mph winds.
The emergency response showed that crews could mobilize, converge, coordinate and evacuate the injured
from a central location. And that in a widespread emergency, neighbors become the true first responders. I think everybody did what they could," Norman said. "Every able-bodied resident was trying to help somebody, or looking for somebody to help.
"
Reach Tim Potter at 316-268-6684 or HYPERLINK "mailto: tpotter@wichitaeagle.com"
© 2007 Wichita Eagle and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved.
HYPERLINK "http://www.kansas.com" http://www.kansas.com
Monday, September 17, 2007
My Good Friend Bonnie (Stormspotter)
Some of you have been seeing posts by someone that calls herself Bonnie (Stormspotter). Well, she's a welcomed addition to this blogging effort and we love having her here with us. Bonnie (Stormspotter) is exactly what her name states, she does storm spotting for the Oklahoma County Emergency Management.. I would encourage you to view her complete profile by clicking on her name. I would encourage you to read her posts and join her sites.
Latest Tropical Weather Outlook And Last Advisory on Ingrid
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5:30 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 120 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN OR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
5:00 AM AST MON SEP 17 2007
...INGRID DISSIPATING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
INGRID IS DISSIPATING.
AT 5:00 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0
WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THE
REMNANTS OF INGRID ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.5 N...60.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
INGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER
QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LESS HOSTILE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE CIRCULATION HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AND ITS
CENTER SEEMS TO NO LONGER BE WELL DEFINED. MY INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 280/10 IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. FORECAST POINTS FOR A
BROAD REMNANT LOW ARE PROVIDED OUT TO 24 HOURS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5:30 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 120 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN OR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
5:00 AM AST MON SEP 17 2007
...INGRID DISSIPATING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
INGRID IS DISSIPATING.
AT 5:00 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0
WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THE
REMNANTS OF INGRID ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.5 N...60.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
INGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER
QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LESS HOSTILE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE CIRCULATION HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AND ITS
CENTER SEEMS TO NO LONGER BE WELL DEFINED. MY INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 280/10 IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. FORECAST POINTS FOR A
BROAD REMNANT LOW ARE PROVIDED OUT TO 24 HOURS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Tropical Depression Ingrid Advisory 19, A Weakening System Indeed!
This system is weakening for sure! Just look at the decrease in wind speed
and pressure.
and pressure.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2007
...INGRID WEAKENS JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...IS 1010 MB...29.83
INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
FORECASTER KNAB
This information is provided as a public service from the
National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Tropical Depression Ingrid Advisory 18
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5:30 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO,
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID, CENTERED ABOUT 210 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, IF ANY, IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR as it MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
5:00 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2007
, DISORGANIZED INGRID MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH,
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID.
AT 5:00 PM AST, 21:00Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES, 340 KM, EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH, AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER SHOULD PASS JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER A
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THOSE ISLANDS ON
MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH, 55 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 milibars, 29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION, 17.4 N, 58.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD, WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 1006 milibars.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11:00 PM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
5:00 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
AFTER BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING, THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF INGRID HAS AGAIN DETERIORATED. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED, DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED, AND
THE LOW CLOUD LINES DEPICTING THE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME
INDISTINCT. MOREOVER, A NUMBER OF ARC CLOUDS, IMPLYING LOW-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, ARE SEEN EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TAFB
DVORAK ESTIMATE. WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHICH MAKES SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. INDEED IF THE CURRENT
DISORGANIZING TREND CONTINUES, INGRID WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW TO EVOLVE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, IF INGRID
SURVIVES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, it COULD BEGIN TO
RESTRENGTHEN IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY, AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATEST LGEM AND
HWRF GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME FRAME. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFDL NOW
DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND AND THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD IN LOCATION ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/9. THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR INGRID ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
RIGHT. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IN 3-4 DAYS MIGHT BE JUST A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE A DIRECT
INFLUENCE ON INGRID'S MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SLOWS
THE FORWARD SPEED TO LESS THAN 5 KT LATER IN THE PERIOD, AND IS
NOT FAR FROM THE CONU DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID SINCE it IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE
TO THE LEFT OF OUR FORECAST TRACK. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE CYCLONE AROUND 0000
UTC AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5:30 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO,
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID, CENTERED ABOUT 210 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, IF ANY, IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR as it MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
5:00 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2007
, DISORGANIZED INGRID MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH,
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID.
AT 5:00 PM AST, 21:00Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES, 340 KM, EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH, AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER SHOULD PASS JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER A
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THOSE ISLANDS ON
MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH, 55 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 milibars, 29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION, 17.4 N, 58.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD, WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 1006 milibars.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11:00 PM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
5:00 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
AFTER BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING, THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF INGRID HAS AGAIN DETERIORATED. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED, DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED, AND
THE LOW CLOUD LINES DEPICTING THE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME
INDISTINCT. MOREOVER, A NUMBER OF ARC CLOUDS, IMPLYING LOW-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, ARE SEEN EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TAFB
DVORAK ESTIMATE. WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHICH MAKES SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. INDEED IF THE CURRENT
DISORGANIZING TREND CONTINUES, INGRID WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW TO EVOLVE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, IF INGRID
SURVIVES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, it COULD BEGIN TO
RESTRENGTHEN IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY, AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATEST LGEM AND
HWRF GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME FRAME. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFDL NOW
DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND AND THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD IN LOCATION ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/9. THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR INGRID ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
RIGHT. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IN 3-4 DAYS MIGHT BE JUST A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE A DIRECT
INFLUENCE ON INGRID'S MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SLOWS
THE FORWARD SPEED TO LESS THAN 5 KT LATER IN THE PERIOD, AND IS
NOT FAR FROM THE CONU DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID SINCE it IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE
TO THE LEFT OF OUR FORECAST TRACK. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE CYCLONE AROUND 0000
UTC AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.
Tropical Depression Ingrid Advisory 17, No Changes From 5 a.m. Update
There are no changes here. If anything, I predict that Ingrid will cease to
exist within the next twelve hours. I'll be real surprised if it does hold
on through this shearing.
exist within the next twelve hours. I'll be real surprised if it does hold
on through this shearing.
Michelle
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2007
...INGRID MAINTAINING 35 MPH WINDS...
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT
260 MILES...415 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...BUT A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.2 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
This information is provided as a public service from the
National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Tropical Depression Ingrid Advisory 16, System Continues To Weaken
Going out on a limb here, but I believe we are still dealing with an El
Nino. I will elaborate on more of this later.
Nino. I will elaborate on more of this later.
Michelle
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2007
...INGRID REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...BUT A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.0 N...56.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
THE CENTER OF INGRID CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...AND
THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. MY BEST...BUT
UNCERTAIN...GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. INGRID IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND SO THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDS IN PART ON
HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. EVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...HOWEVER...AND SO SOME KIND OF BEND TO THE RIGHT IS
EXPECTED EVEN IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK. A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED...AS MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE HWRF WIDE RIGHT WITH A NET
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID PERSISTS BUT LACKS ORGANIZATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND THE 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST...AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...AND INGRID COULD DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE DURING THAT TIME...AS FORECAST BY THE
GFDL. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IF INGRID SURVIVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT DOES
HAVE A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT THAT
TIME WOULD FAVOR RESTRENGTHENING. THIS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
Tropical Depression Ingrid 15
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID CENTERED ABOUT 405 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH.
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA HAVE DIMINISHED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2007
...LITTLE CHANGE WITH INGRID...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST OR ABOUT
405 MILES...650 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.9 N...55.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
THE CENTER OF INGRID IS MOSTLY EXPOSED ON NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE CIRCULATION. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
OVERALL...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT INGRID AND
CAUSE A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN. QUIKSCAT SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS
IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN...BUT THERE
PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. IN FACT...THE GFDL DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE GFS DOES THE SAME BY 96 HOURS.
FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK
SYSTEM PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING...BUT THE
FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON THE SURVIVAL CHANCES OF
INGRID.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...
ESTIMATED AT 285/9. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF INGRID IS SLOWLY
ERODED AWAY BY A TROUGH. IN GENERAL...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD THIS EVENING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MODELS RECOGNIZING THE
SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE WEST FOR THIS ADVISORY BUT IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID CENTERED ABOUT 405 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH.
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA HAVE DIMINISHED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2007
...LITTLE CHANGE WITH INGRID...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST OR ABOUT
405 MILES...650 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.9 N...55.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
THE CENTER OF INGRID IS MOSTLY EXPOSED ON NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE CIRCULATION. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
OVERALL...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT INGRID AND
CAUSE A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN. QUIKSCAT SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS
IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN...BUT THERE
PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. IN FACT...THE GFDL DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE GFS DOES THE SAME BY 96 HOURS.
FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK
SYSTEM PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING...BUT THE
FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON THE SURVIVAL CHANCES OF
INGRID.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...
ESTIMATED AT 285/9. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF INGRID IS SLOWLY
ERODED AWAY BY A TROUGH. IN GENERAL...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD THIS EVENING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MODELS RECOGNIZING THE
SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE WEST FOR THIS ADVISORY BUT IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Tropical Depression Ingrid Advisory 14
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2007
...INGRID FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.5 N...55.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2007
...INGRID FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.5 N...55.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
This Is The Complete Advisory Information On Ingrid Being Downgraded
Didn't I say it wouldn't last? Lol! At any rate, here's the spects on this
dying breed that is Ingrid.
dying breed that is Ingrid.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2007
...HOSTILE WINDS ALOFT TAKING A TOLL ON INGRID...REDUCED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH A FEW SQUALLS...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT
510 MILES...820 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N...53.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
AN UPPER-LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER...HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER INGRID. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS DETERIORATED AND INGRID IS BECOMING A JUST LARGE SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS AS INDICATED BY A NOAA
AIRCRAFT AND BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT...AND BASED ON DATA FROM THESE
OBSERVING TOOLS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30
KNOTS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
EVEN FURTHER...SO IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT INGRID WILL MOST LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MAIN
REASON INGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...WITHOUT FORECASTING DISSIPATION...IS BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION WHICH TRAVERSES THE BAND OF STRONG
WESTERLIES. SOME MODELS...INCLUDING ALL VERSIONS OF SHIPS...SUGGEST
A SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF INGRID BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OPEN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OR SWIRL HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE
CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...IT IS BECOMING STEERED BY THE FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND A
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY...AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF INGRID SHOULD BE PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A DAY OR TWO. IN
FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
Tropical Storm Ingrid Has Been Downgraded To A Depression
DO TO SEVERE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID
This information is provided as a public service from the
National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
DEPRESSION INGRID
This information is provided as a public service from the
National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Tropical Storm Ingrid Advisory 12-Ingrid Experiencing Severe Southwesterly Shearing
I really don't think that Ingrid will survive this on going shear attack
from the westerlies. By the way, It's amazing that such things are
occurring at this point in the Atlantic Basin during this part of the
hurricane season.
from the westerlies. By the way, It's amazing that such things are
occurring at this point in the Atlantic Basin during this part of the
hurricane season.
Michelle
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2007
...INGRID BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 575
MILES...930 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INGRID REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.5 N...52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF INGRID
EARLY THIS MORNING. BELLIGERENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A
TOLL ON INGRID AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO WILL THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. ANOTHER NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
BACK INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE AROUND 12Z...AND A MORE ACCURATE
MEASUREMENT WILL BE TAKEN.
INGRID IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY STRENGTHENING AND COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE DISSIPATION OF
THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...AFTER 3 DAYS OR SO THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX AND IF INGRID SURVIVES THAT LONG SOME OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
MAINTAINS INGRID AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH FIVE DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. A GENERAL MOTION TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS INGRID...OR THE
REMNANT LOW OF INGRID...RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...BUT HAS SHIFTED A
BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS JUST EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
All About Tropical Storm Ingrid, Latest Advisory And Discussions
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM INGRID CENTERED ABOUT 655 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEMS IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2007
...INGRID STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR ABOUT 655
MILES...1050 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INGRID IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...51.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH INGRID TONIGHT AND
FOUND A RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH THE 700 MB CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS AS INDICATED BY
MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...THE
PLANE REPORTED SFMR WINDS OF 38 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAS NOT
SEEN WINDS ABOVE 34 KT SINCE THAT TIME. GIVEN THE AMORPHOUS
PATTERN ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN THIS
EVENING. RATHER STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ARE IN THE
STORM'S PATH FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS OR SO. SOME WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL DIMINISH TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GET SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE
AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE SYSTEM COULD TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY AT THE
LONGER-RANGES...BUT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY THEN. THE
NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8...A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE
BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
STEERING VARIES ACCORDING TO THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF INGRID. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS PROBABLE IN THE LONG-RANGE AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN THE NEAR-TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...THEN IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR RECURVATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE 61W.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM INGRID CENTERED ABOUT 655 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEMS IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2007
...INGRID STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR ABOUT 655
MILES...1050 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INGRID IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...51.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH INGRID TONIGHT AND
FOUND A RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH THE 700 MB CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS AS INDICATED BY
MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...THE
PLANE REPORTED SFMR WINDS OF 38 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAS NOT
SEEN WINDS ABOVE 34 KT SINCE THAT TIME. GIVEN THE AMORPHOUS
PATTERN ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN THIS
EVENING. RATHER STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ARE IN THE
STORM'S PATH FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS OR SO. SOME WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL DIMINISH TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GET SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE
AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE SYSTEM COULD TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY AT THE
LONGER-RANGES...BUT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY THEN. THE
NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8...A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE
BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
STEERING VARIES ACCORDING TO THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF INGRID. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS PROBABLE IN THE LONG-RANGE AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN THE NEAR-TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...THEN IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR RECURVATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE 61W.
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