Hurricane Ike Advisory 31BULLETIN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
...IKE HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS AND RAGGED
ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...340
KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...MOVE OVER
WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WATER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.