Severe Weather Potential Wednesday and Thursday

As you've probably seen, we are monitoring the potential for severe weather both today and tomorrow.

Today's potential is somewhat lower than tomorrow's, but the chance for significant storms is still there. The area of concern today would primarily be north of I-40 and west of Highway 81 in northwest Oklahoma. Similar to what we saw yesterday (an intense supercell produced 70+ mph winds and nearly softball size hail) we will probably only see a few storms. But any storm will likely be severe with very large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat today is not zero, but it is fairly low.

Tomorrow will likely be a different story. A unusually strong storm system for this time of year will move out into the Plains during the afternoon and evening, setting off a round of severe thunderstorms and probably resulting in a significant outbreak of severe weather across the central and southern Plains states. For Oklahoma and north Texas, it appears the main threat would be after 2PM and extending into the evening. Given the strength of the large storm system, and the amount of wind shear and instability that is forecast, we are expecting supercell storms, at least for the first few hours of the event, with the threat for tornadoes and large damaging hail. Eventually, storms will line out and form a squall line that will still be capable of producing severe weather. Right now the highest threat is across northern and central Oklahoma, but north Texas may not escape the effects of this system.

Tomorrow is a day to watch closely and to plan for. One item to consider is that we expect that storms will move quickly, with even the right-moving supercells traveling at speeds over 50 mph. This means shorter reaction and response, less time to deploy spotters once storms get going, etc.

Keep a close eye on the latest forecasts, discussions, outlooks and graphical information on our enhanced web page.

Watch for one or more multimedia briefings on our enhanced page by early this afternoon.

Rick

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Rick Smith

Warning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service - Norman Forecast Office

National Weather Center