Cumulus is developing along the boundary which is right on track. Cu is seen from east of Amarillo to north of Gage to near Fort Supply to Freedom to near May Ranch northwest of Alva and stretching back toward Wichita. Some sort of weak outflow boundary is see in visible imagery pushing southeast from near Cordell to OKC to near Tulsa and is washing out.Everything appears to be on track with one exception. When I issued last night's package, the addition of the 4 km WRF information was a last minute add along with the 0Z GFS. I did not think to lower Monday's high temperatures to account for the outflow boundary moving in around midnight. New NAM/GFS MOS for 12Z suggests Monday will not climb out of the 70s. If the 4 km WRF verifies, bringing the boundary in around midnight, then the wind fields on the NAM/GFS are off by nearly 6 hours. Also the GFS's further south frontal position may verify as well. This could affect morning lows and spot temperatures. With this package, we will likely need to drop the AM low well into the lower 60s and the high in the mid 70s. I'm still finding it slightly hard to believe the boundary will wind up as far south as Lubbock to south of Dallas to near Tyler by Monday evening. It should wash out on Tuesday and allow winds to return to the south and the heat to resume.
Preliminary #'s..OKC 63/76 60/87Pops: 100/80 0/0
Greg
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