Severe Weather Across NW Oklahoma

** Severe Weather Across far Northern OK Thursday Evening **

** More Severe Weather Possible for the next several days **

A cold front has dropped into northwest OK along a line from southwest of Elk City to west of Fairview to near Medford. This front will sit nearly stationary today and be the focusing area for strong to severe storms this evening after 4 pm. A dry line in the eastern Texas panhandle may form a few storms near Childress too, according to the 4 km WRF. Movement will be east-northeast. Training of storms may cause local flooding in northwest Oklahoma this evening. A small window of opportunity for tornadic storms is possible for a few hours along the front if any discrete cells can develop. The cap is forecast to be weakest across north central Oklahoma, where the highest risk of severe weather is today. The front will slowly sink southward overnight, but most of the storms remain across the northern half of the state.

Severe weather is possible along the front tomorrow across parts of Central Oklahoma. The helicity does not appear as high and therefore the main threat should be from winds and hail. The front is forecast to wash out across central and southern OK on Saturday. DGEX and WRF have been consistant in creating more storms along the boundary on Saturday so I have raised pops slightly. DGEX shows an area of storms across northern OK on Sunday so I have retained low pops. There are indications of an MCS on Sunday night to our northeast. A front looks to arrive around 9 pm Monday night in OKC.. so more storms are in the forecast. This may continue into Tuesday. GFS has the front stalled over us on Wednesday and Thursday. There are indications of a possible MCS Thursday morning. I think the models know I'm taking some vacation time next week which may not happen the way the weather looks.

The windy "Denver low" pattern may return by Wednesday of next week.

OKC 92 71/86 66/89 68/92 72/90 66/86 66/86 69/86 71/90 73/90 71/92 73/92Pops: 30% tonight, 60% Friday, 40% Saturday, 30% Sunday, 20% Monday AM, 20% Tuesday, 20% Wednesday, 30% Thursday.
Somewhat windy today. Breezy Monday & Wednesday. Windy there after through at least the following Sunday.

State forecast and more at www.okcfox.com
Greg