Urgent - immediate broadcast requested
Hurricane local statement
National weather service Brownsville TX
8:36 pm central daylight time tue jul 22 2008
hurricane dolly bearing down on the Rio grande valley, damaging winds up to
60 mph with gusts to 80 mph or higher are
Expected near the coast by Wednesday morning. This includes south
Padre island, port isabel, port Mansfield, and sections of
Brownsville and los fresnos.
Most mobile homes will experience moderate to substantial damage.
Some of poor construction will be uninhabitable until repaired.
Houses of poor to average construction will have damage to
Shingles, siding, and gutters. Some windows will be blown out.
Unfastened home items of light to moderate weight will become
Airborne, causing additional damage and possible injury. Several
Power lines will be blown down producing local power outages that
Will affect entire neighborhoods.
Many large branches of healthy trees will be snapped, and
Rotting small to medium sized trees will be uprooted. Dozens of
Palm fronds will be blown down, and minor damage will occur to
Citrus orchards and newly planted lowland crops.
Storm synopsis: at 7:00 pm central daylight time , 0000z, the center of
hurricane
Dolly was located near latitude 24.9 north, longitude 95.7 west
Or about 130 miles, 205 km, east-southeast of Brownsville
Texas.
Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 11 mph. This motion
Should bring the core of dolly near northeastern Mexico or extreme
Southern Texas late morning or midday Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain at 75 mph with higher gusts. Dolly
Is a category one hurricane on the saffir- simpson scale.
Additional strengthening is forecast before landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the
Center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to
160 miles. Tropical storm force winds should begin to reach the
Coasts of northeast Mexico and southern Texas by 10 pm tonight.
Minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter aircraft
Was 982 mb, 29.00 inches. Dolly is expected to produce total
Rain accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of 15
Inches, over much of south Texas and northeastern Mexico over the
Next few days.
Laguna madre from the port of Brownsville to the arroyo Colorado-
Laguna madre from the arroyo Colorado to 5 nm north of port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna madre from 5 nm north of port Mansfield to Baffin bay TX-
Coastal waters from port Mansfield to the Rio grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin bay to port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from port Mansfield to the Rio grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin bay to port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
836 pm central daylight time tue jul 22 2008
, hurricane warning remains in effect,
, new information,
Outer rain bands are moving across the coastal waters with
Tropical storm force winds imminent. Hurricane force gusts winds
Will reach the 60 nm marker around midnight with sustained
Hurricane winds between 2 and 5 am, perhaps continuing through
Mid morning Wednesday before diminishing back to tropical storm
Force for the remainder of the day on Wednesday.
Seas will build to 15 to 20 feet or perhaps a bit higher late
Tonight and continue through Wednesday, along with very rough
Conditions and significant white caps. Beaufort scale 12
Conditions are likely within the core of the strongest winds
During this period.
Mariners should rush to completion last minute preparations
Immediately! Those out in the gulf should seek safe harbor as
Soon as possible, and remain in port through the duration of
Dolly`s winds and seas. Those in port should finish moving their
Craft to safe storage or securely tying down boats and raising
Them sufficiently above the water level before 9 pm tonight.
, storm surge and storm tide,
Tides are now running near 2 foot above normal at port
Isabel, and additional gradual rises are expected overnight with
A final surge arriving near or around time of the lower high tide
Of the day early on Wednesday.
At south padre island, the tide is predicted to be 1 foot above
Mean low lower water, with similar values predicted at port
Isabel at around the same time. At this time, the expected surge
Will range from 4 to 7 feet, with the highest values expected to
Be near the Brownsville ship channel. Tides will continue to run
Above normal through the day as surface winds turn to the
East, continuing to push additional water onshore.
All residents living on prone shorelines can expect some water
Incursion into their homes. Those in typically flood prone areas
May have a foot or two of water in their homes, causing minor
Damage. Shoreline roads may briefly close with up to two feet of
Water across, except those in flood prone areas which could have
Upwards of 4 feet of water across them. Moderate beach erosion is
Possible, becoming likely if conditions extend through multiple
High tide cycles.
Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will
Increase the likelihood of property damage, especially to
Structures on or very near the shoreline.
, next update,
This statement will be updated around midnight.
Kenedy-coastal willacy-coastal cameron-
8:36 pm central daylight time tue jul 22 2008
hurricane warning remains in effect,
new information,
Dolly, a minimal category 1 hurricane, is moving steadily
Toward the coast. Strong rain bands are now 25 to 50 miles east of
South padre island moving steadily east. These bands will have
Tropical storm force winds in excess of 40 mph with gusts as high
As 60 mph or greater. Tornadoes are also possible as these bands
Move inland. As the core nears the coast later tonight and
Wednesday morning significant impacts from hurricane force winds
Are anticipated. Residents should have completed preparedness
Activities. Mobile home or recreational vehicle owners should
Evacuate
areas affected
This statement recommends actions to be taken by persons near the
Coast of the lower rio grande valley including south padre
Island, port isabel, port mansfield, and bayview.
watches/warnings
There is a flash flood watch in effect from wednesday morning through
Thursday evening.
storm surge and storm tide
Tides are now running near 2 foot above normal at port
Isabel, and additional gradual rises are expected overnight with A final
surge arriving near or around time of the lower high tide
Of the day early on wednesday.
At south padre island, the tide is predicted to be 1 foot above
Mean low lower water, with similar values predicted at port
Isabel at around the same time. At this time, the expected surge
Will range from 4 to 7 feet, with the highest values expected to
Be near the brownsville ship channel. Tides will continue to run
Above normal through the day as surface winds turn to the
East, continuing to push additional water onshore.
All residents living on prone shorelines can expect some water
Incursion into their homes. Those in typically flood prone areas
May have a foot or two of water in their homes, causing minor
Damage. Shoreline roads may briefly close with up to two feet of
Water across, except those in flood prone areas which could have
Upwards of 4 feet of water across them. Moderate beach erosion is
Possible, becoming likely if conditions extend through multiple
High tide cycles.
Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will
Increase the likelihood of property damage, especially to
Structures on or very near the shoreline.
, winds,
Northeast winds will continue to increase this evening, reaching
25 to 40 mph by 9 pm. Sustained tropical storm winds, 40 to 50
Mph, with higher gusts will reach the coast between 10 pm and
Midnight. Hurricane force sustained winds are possible between 4
And 7 am as the inner eyewall reaches the coast. In all
Areas, frequent hurricane force gusts are expected from just
Before daybreak until just before noon. Sustained tropical storm
Force winds are expected to continue right through most of the
Day, with direction shifting from north to east.
Dangerous winds are possible!
Poorly constructed or unsecured mobile homes may be destroyed.
Others may receive substantial damage to roofs, walls, and
Windows, and could become uninhabitable. Houses of poor to
Average construction may have partial wall and roof failure, as
Well as blown out windows. Many lanai screens and pool cages will
Have damage, some could be destroyed. Unsecured light to
Moderate weight outdoor items will become projectiles, causing
Additional damage and possible injury. Many areas could have
Power
Outages, hundreds of wires may fall, transformers could
Pop, and some power poles might be pulled down.
Rotting large trees will be uprooted, most common on saturated
Ground. Numerous large branches of healthy trees will snap, and
Moderate damage is possible in citrus orchards. Up to one half of
Newly planted crops may be damaged.
, inland flooding,
Intermittent heavy rain, with local downpours will arrive with
The outer rain bands between 10 and 1 am, with torrential
Rainfall becoming more frequent between 4 and 7 am and likely
Continuing for up to 6 hours. 6 to 8 inches of rain is possible
Just north of the center in the core of the inner eyewall, and 3
To 6 inches along and just south of the immediate center. Flash or
Areal flooding is likely to begin soon after daybreak, in poor
Drainage areas first and in other areas later. The potential
Exists for more widespread flooding by wednesday night and into
Thursday especially if dolly continues to slow down.
Should more than 10 inches of rain fall in a short period, there
Is a chance for resaca flooding in some areas. A flood watch is
In effect.
Extensive flooding is expected wednesday through thursday!
Persons living near or in poor drainage locations should prepare
For possible evacuation later !today or tonight or next day!.
In these areas, significant property damage will occur, and
Some power outages are likely. Minor property damage is possible
Elsewhere.
Water levels in very poor drainage areas will approach 7 feet.
Other poor drainage locations will have rises between 3 and 5
Feet. Elsewhere, expect water rises to near 2 feet. Numerous
Main roads will be closed. Driving is highly discouraged except
For emergencies.
, tornadoes,
Isolated tornadoes and water spouts can are possible as the first
Significant rain bands move along the coast and inland between 8
Pm and 11 pm. An increase chance of tornadoes are possible as the
Storms center approaches the coast wednesday morning.
, beach erosion,
Seas continue to rise quickly just offshore, and waves are
Reaching past the dune line along south padre island as of this
Evening. Significant beach erosion is possible overnight as north
To northeast winds continue to drive increasing waves into the
Coast. Should dolly slow further, severe beach erosion could
Develop wednesday and wednesday night.
, next update,
This statement will be updated around midnight.
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