BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
5:00 PM ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME TUE JUL 08 2008
BERTHA WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...
AT 5:00 PM ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME, 21:00Z, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST, OR ABOUT 620
MILES, 1000 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 900
MILES, 1450 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 12 MPH, 19 KM HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH, 140 KM HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES, 45 KM FROM THE CENTER,
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES, 220 KM. LARGE
SWELLS AND HIGH SURF COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF BERMUDA LATE
TOMORROW. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB, 28.94 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5:00 PM ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME POSITION, 22.7 N...54. W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD, NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11:00
PM ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
5:00 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008
BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO DEGRADE THIS AFTERNOON
AND DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE
VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INDEED, BERTHA'S RAPID
INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY HAS BEEN EQUALED BY ITS RAPID WEAKENING
TODAY. SUCH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS REMAIN A FORECASTING CHALLENGE
AND SERVE AS AN IMPORTANT REMINDER FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSITY FORECASTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM. MOST
OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA MIGHT EVEN REGAIN SOME
STRENGTH LATER IN THE FORECAST AS THE SHEAR RELAXES AND THE SSTS
INCREASE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER.
BERTHA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 310/10. BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH. THIS
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN COULD RESULT IN THE STEERING
CURRENTS BECOMING RATHER WEAK BEYOND 72 HOURS, AND BERTHA COULD
MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. IT IS
FOR THIS REASON THAT INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND NEITHER AS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
This information is provided as a public service from the
National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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