BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
10:00 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
DOLLY VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WITH 100 MPH WINDS. EYE SHOULD
CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI, AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 AM CDT, 15:00 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT
O'CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO
SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10:00 AM CDT, 1500Z, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED BY RADAR
AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST, OR
ABOUT 30 MILES, 50 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH, 11 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE EYE OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER IN A FEW HOURS. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH, 160 KM/HR, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE LIKELY ON
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES, 35 KM FROM THE CENTER,
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES, 220 KM. PORT
ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 54 MPH, 87 KM/HR SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
70 MPH, 113 KM/HR. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVER JUST EAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH, 105 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 119 MPH, 192
KM/HR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS 964 MB, 28.47 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS, ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES, CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 10:00 AM CDT POSITION, 26.0 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD, NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 964 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 12:00 PM CDT AND 2:00 PM CDT, FOLLOWED BY
THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4:00 PM CDT.
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
11:00 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB, WITH A
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE NWS RADAR AT
BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET
ALTITUDE, AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS, MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.
RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING ON A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER, DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE
SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE ARE FORECASTING, IT IS POSSIBLE
FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE
RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.
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