back up to a category 2, packing winds of 105 mph.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
5:00 PM AST WED JUL 09 2008
BERTHA STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
AT 5:00 PM AST, 2100Z, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST, OR ABOUT 560 MILES, 900 KM
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 660 MILES, 1060 KM
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH, 19
KM HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 105 MPH, 165 KM HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BERTHA COULD AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES, 45 KM...FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES, 220
KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB, 28.64 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS
AND HIGH SURF COULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BERMUDA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
REPEATING THE 5:00 PM AST POSITION, 24.8 N, 58.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE, 970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11:00 PM AST.
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
5:00 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2008
BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS. THE CYCLONE NOW HAS A DISTINCTIVE EYE AND IS
SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB. BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE IN A
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 36
HOURS, VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
SSTS SLOWLY FALL. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT BERTHA COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
BERTHA HAS RECENTLY WOBBLED A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION
ESTIMATE BUT THE 12 HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED. 305/10. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE SAME AS
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BERTHA MAKING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BYPASS BERTHA TO THE NORTH AND LEAVE IT BEHIND IN
RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. ACCORDINGLY, THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3 AND 4. A SECOND
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST ON DAY 5 COULD
RESULT IN SOME NORTHWARD ACCELERATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN GENERAL, TRACK MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
This information is provided as a public service from the
National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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