Hurricane Dolly Advisory 10

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
4:00 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
DOLLY BECOMES A HURRICANE. THE SECOND OF THE 2008 HURRICANE
SEASON...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI, AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
AT 4:00 PM CDT, 21:00Z, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST, OR ABOUT 165 MILES, 265 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 10 MPH, 17 KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTH
EASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH, 120 KM/HR, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES, 30 KM FROM THE CENTER, AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES, 260 KM. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB,
29.12 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTH EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS, ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES, CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS.
REPEATING THE 4:00 PM CDT POSITION, 24.6 N, 95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD,
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE, 986 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7:00 PM CDT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
10:00 PM CDT.
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
5:00 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
DOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE, NOAA
BUOYS, SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY, BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75 KNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW
NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY APPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS.
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA JUST
RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW SHEAR, DOLLY IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK, THE CORE OF DOLLY SHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO
BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER
LANDFALL, DOLLY SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE
RE-EMPHASIZED THAT, DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES, ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT
LANDFALL, DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN THE AREA.
This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane
Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov orr http://hurricanes.gov