Tropical Storm Fay Advisory 4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
11:00 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM HAITI. NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES
ISSUED...
AT 11 AM EDT, 1500 UTC, THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY, CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM EDT, 15:00 UTC, THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY, LAS TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA, SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GUANTANMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
AT 11 AM EDT, 15:00 UTC, THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. ALSO., THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11:00 AM EDT, 15:00 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST, OR ABOUT 95 MILES, 155 KM,
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 130 MILES, 205
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15
MPH, 24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK, THE
CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH, 75 KM/HR,
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL CUBA
ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES, 165 KM FROM THE
CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB, 29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA, EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA,
JAMAICA AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 11:00 AM EDT POSITION, 19.0 N, 73.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE,
1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2:00 PM EDT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5:00 PM
EDT.
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS NOW OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THE STORM PRODUCED A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST DURING THE NIGHT OVER
THE WATER SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
BURST WAS AT THE FAR END OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT
BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY AROUND 18Z TO
PROVIDE BETTER DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13. FAY REMAINS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OR FLORIDA THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM ARE FARTHEST TO THE EAST...CALLING FOR
FAY TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THE
GFDL IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. THE GFS...HWRF...FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST
CENTRAL CUBA AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE UKMET AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO
MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NOGAPS IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THUS...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AFTER 48 HR. EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.
WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON
THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...AND
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY
FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL
ORGANIZED OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.