Tropical Storm Fay Advisory 2 Plus Forecast Discussion, Fay Still A Concern For Florida

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
11:00 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
FAY MOVING WESTWARD. APPROACHING HAITI...
AT 11 PM AST, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD TO PORT AU PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS,
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO,
SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS, AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
AT 11:00 PM AST, 3:00 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST, OR ABOUT 100 MILES, 160 KM
EAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 305 MILES, 490 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH, 22 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI EARLY SATURDAY, AND
WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH, 75 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY
COULD WEAKEN SOME WHILE MOVING OVER LAND, BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES, 165 KM, PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. SANTO DOMINGO RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 40 MPH, 65 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB, 29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA, WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 11:00 PM AST POSITION, 18.7 N, 70.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD WEST
NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE,
1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2:00 AM AST, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5:00 AM
AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
11:00 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
WE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
IMMEDIATE UNKNOWN IS HOW MUCH OF FAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. BY LOOKING AT THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION, OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE STEADY WESTWARD
MOTION, IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME THAT FAY COULD SURVIVE THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
HISPANIOLA AND MOVE , ALTHOUGH WEAKER, OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE SATURDAY
MORNING. IF SO, A NEW PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN SINCE THE
SHEAR IS LIGHT AND THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM SOUTH OF CUBA. ONLY THE
INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA WOULD IMPEDE
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT, MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, MAKING FAY A STRONG
HURRICANE SOUTH OF CUBA AND EVEN A STRONGER ONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AFTER CROSSING CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING, BUT SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SIMPLY BECAUSE FAY IS EXPECTED TO STAY LONGER
OVER WATER IN THIS FORECAST.
BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS, THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY AND THE
MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS, A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN GENERAL, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. BEFORE I AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST, I WOULD
RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.
IN SUMMARY, BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSIFYING
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.