Hurricane Gustav Advisory 29A

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...GUSTAV CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ABOUT
TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 260 MILES...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TONIGHT...AND GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220
MILES...350 KM. DATA FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE AREA COVERED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAS EXPANDED...
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF GUSTAV. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA...
AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...26.9 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

Hurricane Gustav Advisory 29

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...GUSTAV MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...
350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220
MILES...350 KM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
ONTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.4 N...87.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

Hurricane Gustav Advisory 28A

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...GUSTAV WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER....AND FROM WEST OF
CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EXCEPT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...
520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE TO DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA
BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED 8-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 MPH...
97 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 12 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS
GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...25.9 N...86.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

Hurricane Gustav Advisory 28 Plus Forecast Discussion

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
10:00 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
GUSTAV CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER, INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA
BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER., AND FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST
OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10:00 AM CDT, 15:00Z, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST, OR ABOUT 325 MILES, 520 KM
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS FORECAST
TRACK, GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND GUSTAV
COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER, BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER, AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 200 MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED 8-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
OF 54 MPH, WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 962 MB, 28.41 INCHES.
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 12 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL
LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION, 25.3 N, 86.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD,
NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE, 960 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC, WITH THE
COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYE WALL.
WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT, IT IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
962 MB, ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET, AND THUS LIES NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR, THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES, STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS, OR TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW
MOTION, THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 72 HR.
AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR, AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT
LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL
LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE
AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT
NOW, AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS
BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HR, WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR, AND
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

Tropical Storm Gustav Advisory 15A

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
...GUSTAV POURING HEAVY RAINS OVER JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA OR NEAR LATITUDE 17.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GRAND CAYMAN.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY AS IT MOVES
NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GUSTAV.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TODAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...76.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

Tropical Storm Gustav Advisory 15 Plus Forecast Discussion

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
...GUSTAV CLOSING IN ON JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 75 KM...EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 350 MILES...560
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER JAMAICA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TODAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION
CENTER HAD BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING. MY SENSE
FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN IS THAT GUSTAV HAS STARTED MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD...PERHAPS 265/4. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CENTER
WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER JAMAICA OR WILL HUG THE SOUTH OR NORTH
COAST...BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...ALL MODELS
FORECAST GUSTAV TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
ALLOW GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FOLLOWING
FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK
GUSTAV'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE
WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
MINORITY. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH
THE CONSENSUS. RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL
TRACK.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER
AIRCRAFT DATA...AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL ARRIVE ON THE
SCENE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE...BUT THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE GUSTAV A HURRICANE AT ANY
TIME TODAY. AFTER PASSING JAMAICA...GUSTAV WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY
WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...FAVORING INTENSIFICATION. ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NARROW
LANDMASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE
STRENGTH OF GUSTAV OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE WATERS WILL BE
WARM BUT WIND SHEAR COULD SLOWLY INCREASE. THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.

Tropical Storm Gustav Advisory 11

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
5 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
GUSTAV A LITTLE WEAKER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE SAINT NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO, SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GRANMA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND
HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. FOR STORM INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS,
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM EDT, 2100Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR 90 MILES, 150 KM SOUTHEAST OF
GUANTANAMO CUBA. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH, 6
KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, GUSTAV
SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV VERY NEAR JAMAICA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH, 85 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HAITI AND THE STORM
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES, 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
999 MB, 29.50 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER HISPANIOLA, EASTERN CUBA, JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION, 19.1 N, 74.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD,
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 50 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE, 999 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

Tropical Storm Gustav Advisory 10A

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
...GUSTAV GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...WEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV
SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GUSTAV VERY NEAR JAMAICA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM
HAITI...AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

Tropical Storm Gustav Advisory 10

I am posting these advisories now because it looks like the Mid West, The
Southern Planes and The Deep South will be dealing with this system in the
coming days.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
...GUSTAV STILL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF
HAITI...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI EAST OF LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS IS DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...180 KM...WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM
HAITI...AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...74.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory 5 Plus Forecast Discussion

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
5:00 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
FAY WEAKER BUT RE-ORGANIZING SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA. NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES
FOR CUBA...
AT 5 PM EDT, 21:00 UTC, THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA, CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY, CIEGO DE AVILA
AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT, 21:00 UTC, THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY,
LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN... GRANMA, SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT, 21:00 UTC, THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. ALSO AT 5 PM EDT, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELED
NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5:00 PM EDT, 21:00 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST, OR ABOUT 225 MILES, 365 KM
SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES, 100 KM SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO
CUBA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH, 26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
FAY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH, 65
KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS WESTERN
CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES, 165 KM FROM
THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS 1006 MB, 29.71 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA, EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA,
JAMAICA AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA
AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS, WHILE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 5:00 PM EDT POSITION, 19.3 N, 75.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE,
1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8:00 PM EDT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11:00 PM
EDT.
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
5:00 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT FAY IS A
LITTLE WEAKER THAN BELIEVED EARLIER, WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY NEAR 35 KT
AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE WAS RAGGED A
FEW HOURS AGO, BUT A NEW CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. FAY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE
ECMWF AND NAM MODELS REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE,
AND HAVE BEEN JOINED BY THE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE
PREVIOUS RUN. THESE MODELS CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA LANDFALL. THE
GFS...HWRF, GFDN, FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS
FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE BOTH SHIFTED EAST OF
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT ARE STILL ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
IN CALLING FOR A MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL, THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTER THE 48 HR POINT. EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY, AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE
ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO
THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.
WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER, IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS, THE INTENSITY WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON THE STORM
STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING, AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL ORGANIZED OVER WATER...SUCH AS WHILE PASSING
SOUTH OF CUBA OR OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT MIGHT
NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FAY TO WEAKEN OVER THE UNITED STATES AFTER
LANDFALL. SHOULD IT REMAIN OVER WATER AFTER 72 HR, THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory 4A, Storm Still A Threat To Florida

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2:00 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY,
CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY, LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN, GRANMA, SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GUANTANMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS, THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2:00 PM EDT, 18:00 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST, OR ABOUT 50 MILES, 80 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA AND ABOUT 175 MILES, 280 KM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
16 MPH, 26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK, THE
CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH, 75 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND FAY COULD BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL CUBA ON SUNDAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
FAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES, 165 KM FROM THE
CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB, 29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA, EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA,
JAMAICA AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 2:00 PM EDT POSITION, 19.2 N, 74.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE,
1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5:00 PM EDT.

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory 4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
11:00 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM HAITI. NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES
ISSUED...
AT 11 AM EDT, 1500 UTC, THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY, CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM EDT, 15:00 UTC, THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY, LAS TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA, SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GUANTANMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
AT 11 AM EDT, 15:00 UTC, THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. ALSO., THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11:00 AM EDT, 15:00 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST, OR ABOUT 95 MILES, 155 KM,
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 130 MILES, 205
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15
MPH, 24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK, THE
CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH, 75 KM/HR,
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL CUBA
ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES, 165 KM FROM THE
CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB, 29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA, EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA,
JAMAICA AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 11:00 AM EDT POSITION, 19.0 N, 73.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE,
1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2:00 PM EDT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5:00 PM
EDT.
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS NOW OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THE STORM PRODUCED A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST DURING THE NIGHT OVER
THE WATER SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
BURST WAS AT THE FAR END OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT
BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY AROUND 18Z TO
PROVIDE BETTER DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13. FAY REMAINS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OR FLORIDA THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM ARE FARTHEST TO THE EAST...CALLING FOR
FAY TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THE
GFDL IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. THE GFS...HWRF...FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST
CENTRAL CUBA AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE UKMET AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO
MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NOGAPS IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THUS...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AFTER 48 HR. EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.
WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON
THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...AND
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY
FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL
ORGANIZED OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory 3, Plus Forecast Discussion, Fay Remains A Threat To Florida

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
5:00 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
FAY WILL CROSS HAITI AND EMERGE OVER WATER LATER TODAY...
AT 5 AM EDT, 9:00 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTHERN COAST TO
SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS ON THE SOUTHERN COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI,
AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO, SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND
LAS TUNAS, AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF CENTRAL CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
AT 5:00 AM EDT, 9:00 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST, OR ABOUT 20 MILES, 35 KM,
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 235 MILES, 375 KM,
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14
MPH, 22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK, THE
CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING, AND WILL BE MOVING NEAR
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH, 75 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY COULD
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING, BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
BACK OVER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES,
165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB,
29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA, EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA,
JAMAICA AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 5:00 AM EDT POSITION, 18.7 N, 72.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE,
1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8:00 AM EDT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11:00
AM EDT.
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
5:00 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
EVEN THOUGH WE CANNOT DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY IS LOCATED,
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
IT IS STILL INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THE AIR FORCE PLANE CIRCUMNAVIGATED THE
ENTIRE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, ENDURING SOME RATHER
TURBULENT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND WE APPRECIATE THE HARD WORK OF THE CREW. FLIGHT-LEVEL
AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT.
FAY REMAINS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, RESULTING IN
WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN, THE STORM HAS A RELATIVE WELL-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 270/12 TO THE SOUTH OF
A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING,
DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALLOWING FAY TO TURN TO THE RIGHT INTO THE
WEAKNESS, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 3-5 DAYS.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS, BUT THERE ARE RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT TRACK. THE
GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS HEAD UP THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN
A FEW DAYS, WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE FARTHER WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER THE
CENTER OF FAY WILL PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BEFORE
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AGAIN HIGHLIGHT THE
PITFALLS OF FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK,
ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER RANGES.
INTENSITY FORECASTING IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT, BUT IN THIS CASE, IS MADE EVEN
MORE COMPLICATED BY THE LIKELY INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK APPEAR
RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING, SO THE MORE TIME FAY SPENDS OVER WATER,
THE STRONGER IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME AND VICE VERSA. DYNAMICAL MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE THAT THE WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AROUND FAY SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS A MODEST BUT
TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SHEAR IN ROUGHLY 48 HOURS. WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER,
THOSE WATERS WILL BE VERY WARM. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK IMPLIES AMPLE
AMOUNT OF TIME OVER WATER, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN A MANNER
SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL. FAY COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF ITS STAY
OVER HISPANIOLA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION, OR IF IT MOVES
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AND SPENDS MORE TIME OVER CUBA. A TRACK FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST, HOWEVER, COULD ALLOW FAY TO GET STRONGER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN
BELOW.

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory 2A, NHC Advising Florida To Watch System Closely

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2:00 AM AST SAT AUG 16 2008
FAY CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA...
AT 2:00 AM AST, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN EXTENDED
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN
PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS, FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO, SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND
LAS TUNAS, AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA, THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2:00 AM AST, 6:00 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST, OR ABOUT 60 MILES, 95 KM EAST
OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 260 MILES, 415 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH, 22 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING, AND
WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH, 75 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY
COULD WEAKEN SOME WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING, BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
BACK OVER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES,
165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB, 29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA, WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 2:00 AM AST POSITION, 18.7 N, 71.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE,
1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5:00 AM AST.

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory 2 Plus Forecast Discussion, Fay Still A Concern For Florida

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
11:00 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
FAY MOVING WESTWARD. APPROACHING HAITI...
AT 11 PM AST, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD TO PORT AU PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS,
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO,
SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS, AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
AT 11:00 PM AST, 3:00 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST, OR ABOUT 100 MILES, 160 KM
EAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 305 MILES, 490 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH, 22 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI EARLY SATURDAY, AND
WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH, 75 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY
COULD WEAKEN SOME WHILE MOVING OVER LAND, BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES, 165 KM, PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. SANTO DOMINGO RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 40 MPH, 65 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB, 29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA, WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 11:00 PM AST POSITION, 18.7 N, 70.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD WEST
NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE,
1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2:00 AM AST, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5:00 AM
AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
11:00 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
WE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
IMMEDIATE UNKNOWN IS HOW MUCH OF FAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. BY LOOKING AT THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION, OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE STEADY WESTWARD
MOTION, IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME THAT FAY COULD SURVIVE THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
HISPANIOLA AND MOVE , ALTHOUGH WEAKER, OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE SATURDAY
MORNING. IF SO, A NEW PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN SINCE THE
SHEAR IS LIGHT AND THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM SOUTH OF CUBA. ONLY THE
INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA WOULD IMPEDE
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT, MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, MAKING FAY A STRONG
HURRICANE SOUTH OF CUBA AND EVEN A STRONGER ONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AFTER CROSSING CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING, BUT SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SIMPLY BECAUSE FAY IS EXPECTED TO STAY LONGER
OVER WATER IN THIS FORECAST.
BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS, THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY AND THE
MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS, A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN GENERAL, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. BEFORE I AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST, I WOULD
RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.
IN SUMMARY, BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSIFYING
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory 1A

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
8:00 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES
NORTHWARD FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO, SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN
AND LAS TUNAS, AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8:00 PM AST, 0000 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIMATED TO
BE INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST, OR
ABOUT 35 MILES, 55 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 335 MILES, 540 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH, 22 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND PASS NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH, 75 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER
OF FAY IS OVER HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
85 MILES, 140 KM PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB, 29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA, WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8:00 PM AST POSITION, 18.6 N, 70.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE,
1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11:00 PM AST.

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory 1, Storm May Impact Florida Next Tuesday

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
5:00 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS. SIXTH ATLANTIC STORM OF THE SEASON...
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS
IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT 5 PM AST, 21:00 UTC, THE
GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES
NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 PM AST, 21:00 UTC, THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO, SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GRANMA. AT 5
PM AST, 21:00 UTC, THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5:00 PM AST, 21:00 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST, OR ABOUT 35 MILES, 55 KM EAST OF
SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 395 MILES, 635 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14
MPH, 22 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AND PASS NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH, 65 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, MAINLY
OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 85 MILES, 140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1008 MB, 29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA, WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 5:00 PM AST POSITION, 18.5 N, 69.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE,
1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8:00 PM AST, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11:00 PM
AST.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 826

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF WORTHINGTON MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
SIOUX CITY IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...
WW 825
...
DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS...SOME WITH SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY SWD FROM SW MN INTO
NW IA ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS. A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500
J/KG/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
MULTIPLE STORM MERGERS/INTERACTIONS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY SUCH
THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 35020.
...THOMPSON

Tropical Depression Edouard Advisory 11 From The HPC

TROPICAL SUMMARY MESSAGE
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 11 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052008
10:00 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS NEAR COLLEGE STATION AND BRYAN.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST...OR 65
MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF WACO TEXAS AND 30 MILES... 48
KM...NORTH OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 12
MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1009 MB...OR 29.79 INCHES.
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 800 PM
CDT...
...TEXAS...
BAYTOWN EOC 6.48
SHELDON: SAN JACINTO RIVER BANANA BEND 5.99
PASADENA: BIG ISLAND SLOUGH 5.75
BAYTOWN: CEDAR BAYOU 5.27
BAYTOWN: GOOSE CREEK 5.08
PASADENA: WILLOW SPRING 5.08
SHOREACRES: TAYLOR BAYOU 4.73
LA PORTE: LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU 4.57
SHELDON: CARPENTERS BAYOU 4.49
HUNTSVILLE 3.32
HOUSTON (IAH) 2.81
HOUSTON (HOU) 1.99
...LOUISIANA...
LAKE CHARLES 1.87
SALT POINT 20SSW 1.28
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...31.0 NORTH...96.4
WEST...MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR WEATHER.GOV FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.
MUSHER/KOST

Last NHC Public Advisory on What is Now Tropical Depression Edouard

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
4:00 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008
EDOUARD WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
AT 4 PM CDT, 21:00 UTC, ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE
DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 4:00 PM CDT, 21:00Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST, OR ABOUT 35 MILES, 60
KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HOUSTON TEXAS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH, 55 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB, 29.62 INCHES.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA, WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF EDOUARD. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 4:00 PM CDT POSITION, 30.2 N, 95.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD,
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 35 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE, 1003 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH BEGINNING AT 10
PM CDT.

Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory 9A

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
1:00 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008
EDOUARD PUSHING FARTHER INLAND...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA,
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1:00 PM CDT, 18:00Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST, OR ABOUT 35 MILES, 55 KM EAST
OF HOUSTON TEXAS. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH,
16 KM/HR, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO, TAKING EDOUARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH, 85 KM/HR,
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS EDOUARD CONTINUES
MOVING FARTHER INLAND, AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES, 110 KM FROM THE
CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB, 29.49 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. EDOUARD IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1:00 PM CDT POSITION, 30.0 N, 94.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD,
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 50 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE, 999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4:00 PM CDT.

Latest Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard, Storm Makes Landfall Along Upper Texas Coast

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
7:00 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008
EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO SARGENT TEXAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 7:00 AM CDT, 12:00Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND SABINE PASS IN THE
MCFADDIN NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH, 23 KM/HR , AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH, 100 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES INLAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES, 110 KM FROM THE
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 997 MB, 29.44 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL
PARISHES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
TODAY.
REPEATING THE 7:00 AM CDT POSITION, 29.6 N, 94.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD,
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 65 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE, 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10:00 AM CDT.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
10:00 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008
EDOUARD BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...
AT 10 AM CDT, 15:00 UTC, THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO SARGENT TEXAS IS DISCONTINUED. AT 10 AM CDT, TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA AND WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS ARE
DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10:00 AM CDT, 15:00Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST, OR ABOUT 40 MILES, 65 KM WEST
OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS AND ABOUT 45 MILES, 70 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GALVESTON
TEXAS. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH, 24 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION, WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED, IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, TAKING EDOUARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH, 95 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS EDOUARD CONTINUES MOVING FARTHER INLAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES, 110 KM FROM THE
CENTER. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE PLATFORM AT NORTH JETTY, NEAR THE ENTRANCE
TO THE GALVESTON BAY, RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH AND A PEAK
GUST OF 59 MPH. A NOAA C-MAN STATION SRST2 NEAR SABINE PASS RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH, WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB, 29.44 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. EDOUARD IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 10:00 AM CDT POSITION, 29.9 N, 94.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD,
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 60 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE, 997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1:00 PM CDT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4:00 PM CDT.

High Temperatures Still At Peak In Oklahoma

Active Watches and Warnings

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
105 TO 109 DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PEOPLE AND
ANIMALS... INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.

OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052-TXZ085-086-
088>090-050930-
/O.CON.KOUN.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-080806T0000Z/
WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-DEWEY-
CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-
OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-
HUGHES-KIOWA-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-
COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-
WILBARGER-WICHITA-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY...TALOGA...
WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...
STILLWATER...CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...
SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...HOBART...FREDERICK...LAWTON...
DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...WALTERS...
WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...MADILL...
DURANT...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
1103 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF VERY HOT WEATHER WILL
OCCUR. HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF
THE SUN... AND CHECK ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS. YOU SHOULD ALSO
MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE PLENTY OF FRESH WATER AND A SOURCE OF
SHADE.

Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory 6A

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
7:00 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
EDOUARD MOVING ERRATICALLY WESTWARD. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BRUSHING THE
LOUISIANA COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR. FOR STORM
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 7:00 PM CDT, 00:00Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST, OR ABOUT 125 MILES, 200 KM,
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 205 MILES, 330 KM,
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7
MPH, 11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT,
AND THE CENTER OF EDOUARD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH, 75 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
EDOUARD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTLINE DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES, 110
KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB, 29.50 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES,
ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 7:00 PM CDT POSITION, 28.4 N, 91.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 999
MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10:00 PM CDT.

Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory 6

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
4:00 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
EDOUARD GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
REACH THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR. FOR STORM
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 4:00 PM CDT, 21:00Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST, OR ABOUT 135 MILES, 220 KM,
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 215 MILES, 350 KM,
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7
MPH, 11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT,
AND THE CENTER OF EDOUARD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH, 75 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ALTHOUGH EDOUARD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET TODAY, IT IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE COASTLINE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES, 110 KM FROM THE CENTER, AND WERE RECENTLY
REPORTED NEAR COCODRIE LOUISIANA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB,
29.53 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES,
ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 4:00 PM CDT POSITION, 28.3 N, 91.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 1000
MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 7:00 PM CDT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10:00 PM CDT.

Tropical Storm Advisory 5A

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
100 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EDOUARD AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT OCONNOR.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
240 MILES...390 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...91.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory 5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
10:00 AM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD...
AT 10 AM CDT, 15:00 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT OCONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
AT 10:00 AM CDT, 15:00Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST, OR ABOUT 160 MILES, 260 KM,
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 265 MILES, 425 KM,
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8
MPH, 13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WHICH
WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EDOUARD VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH, 75 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND EDOUARD COULD
BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES, 55 KM FROM THE
CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB, 29.59 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT. ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 10:00 AM CDT POSITION, 28.2 N, 90.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 1002
MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1:00 PM CDT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4:00 PM CDT.

Tornado Watch 804

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM UNTIL
600 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FAIRMONT
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS NOW FORMING OVER S CNTRL MN
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE ALONG 925/850 MB THERMAL
GRADIENT. WHILE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO PRIMARY BE DRIVEN BY WAA...WEAK
DPVA MAY ALSO BE PRESENT ON SERN FRINGE OF UPR IMPULSE EXITING THE
ERN DAKS. COMBINATION OF VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...BACKED
NEAR-SFC FLOW AND MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND...ESPECIALLY W OF THE MS
RVR...TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
..CORFIDI
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER CHISAGO COTTONWOOD
DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT
FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE
HENNEPIN HOUSTON ISANTI
JACKSON LE SUEUR MARTIN
MCLEOD MEEKER MOWER
NICOLLET OLMSTED RAMSEY
REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE
SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY
STEELE WABASHA WASECA
WASHINGTON WATONWAN WINONA
WRIGHT
WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA
CLARK DUNN EAU CLAIRE
JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE
PEPIN PIERCE POLK
RUSK ST. CROIX TAYLOR
TREMPEALEAU

Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory 3, Hurricane Watch Issued

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
10:00 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED AS EDOUARD CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD...
AT 10 PM CDT, 3:00 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 10 PM CDT, 3:00 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS IS REPLACED BY A HURRICANE
WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10:00 PM CDT, 3:00Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST, OR ABOUT 80 MILES, 125 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 390 MILES,
630 KM EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5
MPH, 7 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED, IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH, 85 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING
HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES, 55 KM FROM THE
CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB, 29.59 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 ft. ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 10:00 PM CDT POSITION, 28.1 N, 88.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD, WEST
NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 1002
MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1:00 AM CDT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4:00 AM CDT.