Severe Thunderstom Watch for Oklahoma

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 703
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SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG/AHEAD
OF N/S COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK. WITH AIR MASS NOW
MDTLY UNSTABLE AND THE CAP WEAKENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...HALES


SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG/AHEAD
OF N/S COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK. WITH AIR MASS NOW
MDTLY UNSTABLE AND THE CAP WEAKENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 141912
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC007-015-017-019-027-035-041-049-053-061-073-077-079-095-111-
113-115-117-127-131-143-149-151-155-159-161-169-173-191-197-201-
150200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0703.071014T1915Z-071015T0200Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER BUTLER CHASE
CHAUTAUQUA CLAY COWLEY
DICKINSON ELK ELLSWORTH
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN LYON
MARION MARSHALL MCPHERSON
MORRIS NEMAHA OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE PRATT RENO
RICE RILEY SALINE
SEDGWICK SUMNER WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON


OKC003-047-053-071-093-103-113-117-151-150200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0703.071014T1915Z-071015T0200Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA GARFIELD GRANT
KAY MAJOR NOBLE
OSAGE PAWNEE WOODS


ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...TSA...TOP...ICT...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW3
WW 703 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 141915Z - 150200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NE CNK/CONCORDIA KS/ - 20SE END/ENID OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /40WSW PWE - 17SE END/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.

LAT...LON 39999581 36139650 36139883 39999827

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.


Watch 703 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 703

VALID 142335Z - 150040Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N AVK TO
25 NE AVK TO 20 ENE HUT TO 35 NNE CNK.

..LEVIT..10/14/07

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...TSA...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 703

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

KSC015-017-019-027-035-041-049-061-073-077-079-111-115-117-127-
131-149-161-173-191-197-201-150040-

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CLAY COWLEY DICKINSON
ELK GEARY GREENWOOD
HARPER HARVEY LYON
MARION MARSHALL MORRIS
NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY
SEDGWICK SUMNER WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON
$$


OKC003-047-053-071-093-103-113-117-151-150040-

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA GARFIELD GRANT
KAY MAJOR NOBLE
OSAGE PAWNEE WOODS
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 703

VALID 142250Z - 142340Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078

..LEVIT..10/14/07

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...TSA...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 703

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

KSC015-017-019-027-035-041-049-053-061-073-077-079-095-111-113-
115-117-127-131-143-149-155-159-161-169-173-191-197-201-
142340-

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CLAY COWLEY DICKINSON
ELK ELLSWORTH GEARY
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MORRIS
NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
RENO RICE RILEY
SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$


OKC003-047-053-071-093-103-113-117-151-142340-

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA GARFIELD GRANT
KAY MAJOR NOBLE
OSAGE PAWNEE WOODS
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 703

VALID 142140Z - 142240Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..LEVIT..10/14/07

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...TSA...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 703

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

KSC007-015-017-019-027-035-041-049-053-061-073-077-079-095-111-
113-115-117-127-131-143-149-151-155-159-161-169-173-191-197-201-
142240-

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER BUTLER CHASE
CHAUTAUQUA CLAY COWLEY
DICKINSON ELK ELLSWORTH
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL
MORRIS NEMAHA OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE PRATT RENO
RICE RILEY SALINE
SEDGWICK SUMNER WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON
$$


OKC003-047-053-071-093-103-113-117-151-142240-

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA GARFIELD GRANT
KAY MAJOR NOBLE
OSAGE PAWNEE WOODS
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 703

VALID 142030Z - 142140Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..LEVIT..10/14/07

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...TSA...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 703

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

KSC007-015-017-019-027-035-041-049-053-061-073-077-079-095-111-
113-115-117-127-131-143-149-151-155-159-161-169-173-191-197-201-
142140-

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER BUTLER CHASE
CHAUTAUQUA CLAY COWLEY
DICKINSON ELK ELLSWORTH
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL
MORRIS NEMAHA OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE PRATT RENO
RICE RILEY SALINE
SEDGWICK SUMNER WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON
$$


OKC003-047-053-071-093-103-113-117-151-142140-

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA GARFIELD GRANT
KAY MAJOR NOBLE
OSAGE PAWNEE WOODS
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$



Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (40%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)



For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.



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