FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT NOW EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WEST TEXAS WILL CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ALL MODELS
AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW SOLUTION... BUT SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS
REMAIN REGARDING WHERE THE LOW WILL BE AT ANY GIVEN TIME. FOR THIS
FORECAST... HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL
RESULT IS A TENDENCY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN... AND LESS CLOUD COVER... COMPARED TO
THE EASTERN PARTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN THEY
WERE JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO... AND THE BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ADVANCING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IT
APPEARS THAT THAT SYSTEM MAY ALSO CUT OFF AND HEAD BACK OUT INTO
THE PACIFIC... BUT IT SHOULD AT LEAST HELP NUDGE OUR LOW BACK INTO
THE WESTERLIES. AS THE LOW DEPARTS... IT SHOULD LEAVE BEHIND MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE LOW... AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE WITH CUTOFF LOWS.

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/23
U.S. Dept. of CommerceNOAA National Weather Service1325 East West HighwaySilver Spring, MD 20910E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.govPage last modified: May 16, 2007
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