Forecast From the NWS

000FXUS64 KOUN 210033AFDOUNAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK733 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007.

UPDATE...RED FLAG CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT IN WESTERNOKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITYWAS ON ITS WAY BACK UP ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH MILD AND WINDYWEATHER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...RED FLAG CRITERIA WERE COMING TOAN END...AND WE HAVE ALLOWED THE WARNING TO EXPIRE.THE FORECAST LOOKS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE FOR THE OVERNIGHTPERIOD...AND NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED. LOOKING AHEAD TOTOMORROW...THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STOOD OUT A BITAMONGST SURROUNDING FORECASTS. FURTHER INSPECTION...THOUGH...DOESREVEAL SOME WEAK INSTABILITY THAT MAY DEVELOP ABOVE 800 MB...ROUGHLY THE LEVEL AT WHICH LIFTING WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THECOLD FRONT. THE 18Z MODEL RUNS ALSO HAVE A WEAK SIGNAL FORPRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WASONLY WILLING TO TRIM A SMALL PORTION OF POPS FROM SOUTHEASTOKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUSKEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF THAT AREA UNTIL THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD.ALSO APPEARS AS THOUGH THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY ONLY REACH THENORTHWEST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD NOTRULE OUT AN EARLIER ONSET GIVEN THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND DEEPFRONTAL CIRCULATION THAT WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME.

BURKE