NWS Forecast for Oklahoma

weather.gov National Weather ServiceArea Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KOUN 211922
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
217 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007
DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE USED THE OBSERVATIONS AND JUSTIFICATION MENTIONED IN THE
MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MUCH OF THE RATIONALE FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REGARDING WHICH
MODEL...HAVE USED MOSTLY THE GFS THROUGH MONDAY WHICH HAS THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST PROVIDING TREMENDOUS FORCING OVER THE MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING JUST ABOVE THE SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WIND AND FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO BECOME
REINFORCED BY DIABATIC COOLING FROM DEVELOPING RAIN AND THICK POST
FRONTAL CLOUD COVER TO ONLY INCREASE THE ISSALOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN/SHOWER(S) TO BEGIN EXPANDING IN ONE OR MORE BANDS MOSTLY
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE 12Z MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
THE SURGING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS FORMING QUICKLY NEAR AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WITH THE OBSERVED 12Z OUN RAOB ABOUT 3 DEGREES C WARMER
AT THE INVERSION (800 MB) HEIGHT THAN ANY OF THE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE...IT IS THOUGHT THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDERDOING THE STRENGTH
OF THE CAP AND THUS MAKING IT TOO EASY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. CAN
NOT RULE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT...BUT PREFER THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR REALIZING STATIC INSTABILITY WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT AND ASSOCIATED EROSION OF
THE CAP LAYER IS GENERATED BY THE MODELS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE COLD...RAINY...AND SOMEWHAT RAW FEELING FOR ABOUT
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREFERRED TO PREDICT
EVEN LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 THAN WHAT WE BE ISSUING THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES RESULTED IN A COMPROMISE.
NEVERTHELESS...WE HAVE A FORECAST HIGH MONDAY AT OKLAHOMA CITY OF
JUST 48 DEGREES...WITH WIND CHILLS PROBABLY INTO THE 30S FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE UKMET/GFS THROUGH 48 HRS WHICH HAS THE
TROUGH CUTTING OFF INTO A LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY
MONDAY...THEN DRIFTING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECT
THE MAJORITY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN TO DEVELOP ON EASTERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...WE USED THE UKMET AND
BLENDED IN THE NAM WHICH HAS THE LOW GRADUALLY LEAVING THE REGION BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
THANKS TO ALL OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION...
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 48 41 58 / 90 80 30 20
HOBART OK 43 50 40 62 / 80 60 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 51 41 62 / 80 60 20 0
GAGE OK 41 55 41 63 / 40 20 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 45 50 39 59 / 90 80 40 30
DURANT OK 52 52 44 59 / 70 70 40 20
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
OKZ012-016>019-021>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
TXZ083>090.
$$
JAMES
U.S. Dept. of CommerceNOAA National Weather Service1325 East West HighwaySilver Spring, MD 20910E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.govPage last modified: May 16, 2007
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