Area Forecast from Norman, Oklahoma-NOAA

000
FXUS64 KOUN 100158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
858 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2007

.UPDATE...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL LIKELY PUSH TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
AROUND SUNRISE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. WE WILL LOWER TEMPS JUST A BIT MORE IN THOSE
TERRAIN RELATED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WERE FALLING A LITTE FASTER.
COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE THIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEING REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL
CONTINENTAL AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD BE BARELY NOTICEABLE AS THE AIR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE TOO DRY/STABLE TO RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

BEYOND MIDWEEK...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE MODEL INTERROGATION HAS
TAKEN PLACE TODAY...IS FOR THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING THE AN INCREASING FIELD OF ASCENT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER WEST TEXAS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THEN AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
DEEPENS INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS SHOW A DRYLINE DEVELOPING OVER
WEST TEXAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRENGTHENING BEHIND IT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY
DEPICTED BY THE MODELS INITIALLY...STRONG/DEEP ASCENT SHOULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
THEN MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...A SQUALL LINE IS
POSSIBLE ON ONE OR BOTH DAYS OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE BEST TIMING OF A DRYLINE PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE STRONG POST-DRYLINE WINDS COULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES. THE DRYLINE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
QUICKLY BEHIND IT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 81 53 71 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 49 81 55 76 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 51 84 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 41 81 49 74 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 47 79 50 67 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 52 83 54 76 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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