High Fire Danger Then Bitter Cold and Snow

*** High Fire Danger Monday ****** Marginal Severe Storms Possible Monday Night ****** Blizzard Conditions Possible in NW OK Tuesday AM ***Monday looks to be similar to Sunday, with strong south winds sustained around 30 gusting to 40. Temperatures should be practically identical, if not a couple degrees warmer. A band of clouds will move from west to east Monday AM with Pt. Cloudy/Mostly Sunny Monday afternoon, more sun west.A few rain showers may develop in eastern OK Monday. Locally generated WRF-ARW model and ADONIS model show thunderstorms breaking out in NW OK along a Alva- Elk City line near dark Monday. I suspect these may become severe with some hail. Plenty of moisture will be in place with a 50 degree dew point surge into OK before the front arrives. High winds should preclude any concern for fog but post-frontal blowing drizzle may be a concern.The front will enter NW OK late on Monday, with a bitter cold north wind behind it. ECMWF, NAM-WRF and ADONIS appear to have the correct frontal timing. Temperatures should already be below freezing by Tuesday AM in NW OK with snow in progress. Locally run ADONIS model indicates up to 3" of snow in NW OK on Tuesday AM, and north winds at 30 mph should cause near whiteout conditions in some areas. Local drifts of 8"(?) seem possible. Warm ground will initially help prevent the snow from sticking but quantity may eventually take over. In OKC, it probably won't be much of a problem with an inch or less expected. The bigger story will be temperatures dropping from the 40s in the morning to below freezing in the afternoon, with a bitter north wind. BUFKIT sounding indicated it may sleet from 9 am to 11 am, then snow after 11 am in OKC. This is in fairly good agreement with the ADONIS model. Skies should clear out Tuesday night leading to a brutally cold night with 10s common. I am going 19 in OKC off of BUFKIT sounding data, slightly below all MOS. Wednesday looks cold with temperatures remaining in the 30s in many areas. NW OK may take several days to recover much above freezing as long as there's snow on the ground, and any day with a north wind (such as Wednesday) may affect areas south as cold air is transported over the snow pack.There are a few ambiguities with the Thursday/Friday time period. A weak front might arrive Thursday according to DGEX and GFS. I went near 50. On Friday, there's even more discontinuity in the runs, but following previous data and DGEX I am going with a south wind and mid 50s.Saturday and Sunday look windy with temperatures being driven upward. Fire danger will be high in all but NW OK where snow moisture may be enough to knock the concern down there. ECMWF looks ominous with a more significant, true arctic front, knocking on our door late Sunday. Graphics available at http://www.okcfox.com/OKC 43/66 38/30 19/39 22/49 25/55 36/57 40/57 25/29pops 20 80 00 00 00 20 20 30Greg