Thursday, November 15, 2007

NWS Norman, OK Forecast/Freeze Warning

920 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007.

UPDATE...THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF DECOUPLING... ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 MPH WERE STILL EVIDENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN SHORT TERM QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR EAST THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED THE COLDER TEMPERATURES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. WE ALSO COOLED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH A BIT MORE BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN THE ADDITION OF PAYNE COUNTY TO THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT.AS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS POINT TO A COLD NIGHT... HOWEVER... A MITIGATING FACTOR COULD BE THE WINDS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED... ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE SURFACE TO 1KM AVERAGE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AOA 20 KTS THROUGH MORNING... SUGGESTING MODERATED WINDS CONTINUING JUST OFF THE SURFACE. IT APPEARS THAT TURBULENT MIXING MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT... AND THUS FAR... THE RATE OF COOLING HAS BEEN SLOWER IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER... WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW PROTECTED LOW SPOTS DROPPING TO THE FREEZING MARK BY MORNING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THIS AREA

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