Tuesday, October 12, 2010

National Weather Festival-Oklahoma

Be sure to mark your calendars for Saturday November 6th for the National Weather Festival. The free event will run from 9am until 1pm at the National Weather Center in Norman.

If you haven't had a chance to visit us, this is a great opportunity for you and the whole family. There will be plenty of activities to keep weather fans of all ages interested, busy and entertained.

One of the highlights will be the Storm Chaser/Spotter Car Show. We've made some big changes to the show for this year and we now have a category specifically for storm spotters. Feel free to pass this along to anyone who might be interested in showing off their vehicle. We'll have more details and registration information on the web page soon.

Keep an eye on the webpage at www.nationalweatherfestival.org for the latest news and information. You can also get updates via Twitter (follow @nwf2010) and on the festival's Facebook Page - http://www.facebook.com/#!/group.php?gid=294325310404

Thanks

Rick
--
Rick Smith
Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Friday, September 10, 2010

Tornado Watch for Oklahoma

Event: Tornado Watch
Alert:
TORNADO WATCH 653 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OK

. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA CRAIG GARFIELD
GRANT KAY NOBLE
NOWATA OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE WASHINGTON

Nowcast as of 6:25 PM CDT on September 10, 2010

Now
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving east across North Texas this evening... extending from near Olney to east of Abilene at 625 PM. Although most of the showers and thunderstorms will remain south of Archer and Clay counties... isolated showers and storms will be possible across Archer and southern Clay counties of North Texas early this afternoon. Farther north... a cold front extends from Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle and will move southeast into northwest Oklahoma this evening. Meanwhile... a dryline extended from near Cherokee to near Altus Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms may begin to develop along the cold front in Kansas and into northern Oklahoma this evening. If thunderstorms do develop this evening... atmospheric instability remains high and severe weather will be possible. Those planning outdoor activities this evening across northern Oklahoma should monitor the weather.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Watches, Warnings or Advisories for Oklahoma-NWS

Watches, Warnings or Advisories for Oklahoma
This page shows alerts currently in effect for Oklahoma .

Last updated: 11:06 CDT on 07-16-2010
Heat Advisory
Issued: July 16 at 4:13AM CDT
Expiring: July 18 at 7:00PM CDT
Issued by NWS Norman-Oklahoma City
Areas affected:Alfalfa; Atoka; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Washita; Woods; Woodward


Excessive Heat Warning
Issued: July 16 at 11:06AM CDT
Expiring: July 16 at 7:00PM CDT
Issued by NWS Tulsa
Areas affected:Adair; Cherokee; Choctaw; Craig; Creek; Delaware; Haskell; Latimer; Le Flore; Mayes; McIntosh; Muskogee; Nowata; Okfuskee; Okmulgee; Osage; Ottawa; Pawnee; Pittsburg; Pushmataha; Rogers; Sequoyah; Tulsa; Wagoner; Washington

On a personal note: Local TV stations are warning of heat indicies between 105-115F.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Excessive Heat Warning~NWS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010
OKZ017>020-023>032-038>042-044>046-050-TXZ090-160000-
/O.CON.KOUN.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100716T0000Z/
BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-
GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-COMANCHE-
STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATONGA...KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...
STILLWATER...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...
SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...LAWTON...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...
MARIETTA...HENRIETTA
1130 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.
* TEMPERATURE: HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 105 DEGREES AGAIN
TODAY...AND WILL LOCALLY EXCEED 110 DEGREES.
* IMPACTS: PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO EXCEPTIONALLY HOT AND HUMID
AFTERNOONS...WITH LITTLE RELIEF AT NIGHT...PLACES PEOPLE AT
INCREASED RISK OF DEVELOPING HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN CITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN
WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN
AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON
RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Storm Map

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT-NWS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
817 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010
OKC017-051-109-120200-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-100712T0200Z/
CANADIAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-GRADY OK-
817 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GRADY...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND CANADIAN
COUNTIES...
AT 816 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
CITY TO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CITY TO 4 MILES WEST OF EL RENO TO 13
MILES WEST OF CALUMET...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BETHANY...CALUMET...CONCHO...EL
RENO...MUSTANG...NICHOLS HILLS...PIEDMONT...RICHLAND...THE
VILLAGE...UNION CITY...VALLEY BROOK...WARR ACRES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA
CITY AND YUKON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.
&&
LAT...LON 3540 9743 3538 9767 3537 9767 3534 9779
3532 9807 3567 9830 3572 9757
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 316DEG 18KT 3562 9752 3554 9773
3553 9800 3557 9834
$$
WR

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Flash Flooding/NWS

Flash Flood Warning
Oklahoma (Oklahoma)

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
OKC017-027-051-087-109-070145-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FF.W.0019.100706T2250Z-100707T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 845 PM CDT
* AT 547 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN FROM NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OKLAHOAM CITY EXTENDING WEST TO TUTTLE AND EAST TO DEL CITY.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE DEL CITY...FOREST PARK...MIDWEST
CITY...MOORE...MUSTANG...NICOMA PARK...OKLAHOMA CITY...SPENCER...
STANLEY DRAPER LAKE...TINKER AIR FORCE BASE...TUTTLE AND VALLEY
BROOK.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 116 AND 132.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 143 AND 164.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 108 AND 122.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. AN
ADDITIONAL 2 OR 3 INCHES IS LIKELY IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
CITY. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES
INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUP TRUCKS. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 3546 9727 3533 9734 3529 9762 3526 9769
3522 9775 3534 9796 3542 9778 3558 9732$$
WR

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Excessive Heat Warning

Statement as of 3:52 AM CDT on June 22, 2010


... Excessive heat warning remains in effect until 7 PM CDT
Wednesday...

An excessive heat warning is in effect...

For the following counties...

* in Oklahoma... creek... Okfuskee... Okmulgee... Tulsa... Rogers...
Pawnee... Wagoner... Washington... Osage... Nowata... McIntosh and
Muskogee.

In Arkansas... Crawford... Sebastian and Franklin.

Hazardous weather...
* afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will combine
with very high humidity to result in dangerous heat indices at
or slightly above 105 degrees through Wednesday afternoon.
Overnight low temperatures will be very warm... in the middle to
upper 70s... which will provide little relief from the heat.

Impacts...
* the combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will
combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses
are possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...
* drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned room... stay
out of the sun... and check up on relatives and neighbors.

Monday, June 14, 2010

Flood Warning and Latest Update

We are receiving record amounts of rain and flooding. At present, there has been 9" of rainfall in the OKC area. Many streets are closed, including in and out of Will Rogers World Airport. Water rescues are being attempted in several locations. A rescue boat is now at one location where the passengers of the vehicle have been bailing water out with a bucket for the past three hours. Local TV stations are requesting you stay home unless evacuation is necessary. They are preparing to open the flood gates at Lake Overholser, which may cause low lying areas to flood even more.
stormspotter

Below is the information from the NWS
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
934 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010
OKC017-027-109-141700-
/O.CON.KOUN.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100614T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CANADIAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-CLEVELAND OK-
934 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTIES...
...VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES IN OKLAHOMA CITY...
RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA CITY AND SURROUNDING AREAS NEED TO USE EXTREME
CAUTION THIS MORNING. AVOID FLOODED AREAS AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO
EVACUATE.
FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE
VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING... AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN
MANY AREAS THAT ARE NOT HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WITH
MANY AREAS STILL RECEIVING RAIN AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN MEASURED
IN MUCH OF OKLAHOMA CITY SINCE 4 AM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY AND MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. VERY
DANGEROUS FLOODING WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL WATER
RESCUES ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING
SITUATION.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES
INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUP TRUCKS. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND.
LAT...LON 3539 9715 3538 9743 3530 9754 3532 9766
3534 9769 3533 9774 3535 9778 3534 9779
3537 9799 3573 9784 3572 9714
$$
TAYLOR
Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage

Flood Warning
Oklahoma (Oklahoma)

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010
OKC109-142245-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.W.0022.100614T1442Z-100615T1151Z/
/OKBO2.1.ER.100614T1343Z.100614T1800Z.100614T2351Z.NO/
945 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTH CANADIAN RIVER AT OKLAHOMA CITY.
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 9:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE NORTH CANADIAN RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING AND CREST
NEAR 20.9 FEET EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTH CANADIAN RIVER
WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 21 FEET...CROPLANDS...PASTURES...AND RURAL ROADS EAST
OF OKLAHOMA CITY NEAR THE TOWNS OF SPENCER AND JONES ARE INUNDATED
BY SIGNIFICANT OVERFLOW DEPTHS. SPENCER IS NOT AFFECTED BY
FLOODWATERS...WHILE SHALLOW FLOODING MAY REACH THE OUTSKIRTS OF
JONES.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO THE PREVIOUS CREST STAGE OF
21.0 FEET ON JUNE 29...2007.

Friday, June 4, 2010

Alert-Heat Advisory

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-OK20100604144500OUNSpecialWeatherStatementOUN20100605000000OK from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 09:45 CDT on 06-04-2010
Effective: 09:45 CDT on 06-04-2010
Expires: 19:00 CDT on 06-04-2010
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...VERY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE IT FEEL
2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THIS MEANS THAT
THE HEAT INDICES...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...WILL BE BETWEEN 100 AND NEAR 110 DEGREES.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REACH
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
THE UNITED STATES...AND THERE ARE CERTAIN SAFETY PRECAUTIONS THAT
YOU CAN TAKE TO PREVENT HEAT ILLNESS. MAKE SURE CHILDREN OR PETS
ARE NEVER LEFT ALONE IN A CLOSED VEHICLE. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
THROUGH THE DAY...AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...AND WEAR
LIGHTWEIGHT...LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.
THERE IS A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SATURDAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE RELIEF WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHERE HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO OVER 100 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
CONCERNING THE HEAT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Instructions:
Target Area:
Alfalfa
Atoka
Beckham
Blaine
Bryan
Caddo
Canadian
Carter
Cleveland
Coal
Comanche
Cotton
Custer
Dewey
Ellis
Garfield
Garvin
Grady
Grant
Greer
Harmon
Harper
Hughes
Jackson
Jefferson
Johnston
Kay
Kingfisher
Kiowa
Lincoln
Logan
Love
Major
Marshall
McClain
Murray
Noble
Oklahoma
Payne
Pontotoc
Pottawatomie
Roger Mills
Seminole
Stephens
Tillman
Washita
Woods
Woodward

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Severe Weather Map

Tornado Watch

Tornado Watch
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 190
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-043-045-047-049-051-063-
069-073-081-083-087-093-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-153-
200300-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.A.0190.000000T0000Z-100520T0300Z/

TORNADO WATCH 190 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 31 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY
KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN
MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

PONTOTOC SEMINOLE

IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

GARFIELD NOBLE

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

BLAINE DEWEY ELLIS
MAJOR WOODWARD

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ATOKA BRYAN COAL
HUGHES JOHNSTON MARSHALL

IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

CARTER GARVIN MURRAY
STEPHENS

IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

CADDO COMANCHE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ADA...ANADARKO...ARDMORE...ARNETT...
ATOKA...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...COALGATE...DUNCAN...DURANT...
EL RENO...ENID...FAIRVIEW...GUTHRIE...HOLDENVILLE...KINGFISHER...
LAWTON...MADILL...MOORE...MUSTANG...NORMAN...OKLAHOMA CITY...
PAULS VALLEY...PERRY...PURCELL...SEMINOLE...SHAWNEE...
STILLWATER...SULPHUR...TALOGA...TISHOMINGO...WATONGA...
WOODWARD AND YUKON.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Particularly Dangerous Situation! Tornado Watches 146 - 147

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
GOODLAND KANSAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
FEW TORNADOES. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KIT CARSON

. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN
KIOWA LANE LOGAN
MEADE NESS PAWNEE
PRATT RUSH SCOTT
SHERIDAN SHERMAN STAFFORD
THOMAS TREGO WALLACE
WICHITA

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...AN DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZES AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
OK...THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH THE
THREAT OF STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...HART
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY
ELK GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN RENO
SEDGWICK SUMNER

. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CREEK
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT HARPER JEFFERSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE
MAJOR MCCLAIN MURRAY
NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
TULSA WASHINGTON WASHITA
WOODS WOODWARD

about 13 minutes ago, CoasterStorm's WxHQ posted Visible satellite showing
explosive cumulus towers from SW KS into TX panhandle. Storms will rotate
very quickly. PDS watch out alread.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Winter Weather Update 3-20-10 2140




Current conditions at the Spencer Mesonet site include temperatures at 28 degrees and winds from the north-northwest at just under 15 mph creating a windchill of 16.6 degrees. Attached graphic products include Updated Snowfall Totals, anticipated Conditions Tonight and Sunday Predictions.

Latest from the National Weather Service:

An upper level low will move slowly east along the Red River tonight. Light snow wrapping around the storm system will line up from north to south along the Interstate 35 corridor. An additional one to three inches of snow will fall near I-35 and eastward through Sunday morning. Flurries will end farther west...but wherever there is snow falling or already on the ground...brisk northwest winds will continue to create some blowing snow and reduction to visibility. Conditions will improve slowly on Sunday. Greater improvement will come Sunday night and Monday as dry and warmer weather moves in behind the storm. Another weather system will arrive near the middle of next week...producing mainly rain.

We will continue to monitor and provide updates as available and necessary.

Friday, March 19, 2010

Major Winter Storm for northern OK*** Blizzard like high winds expected behind the front into Saturday

REPORTED BY GREG WHITWORTH

Models are finally coming to some agreement about the location, timing and impact of the final winter storm of the season. This storm has the potential to put OKC in the record books as the snowiest winter ever if OKC can get 4 1/2 inches.
The 0Z NAM has come a little more in line with the previous GFS runs as far as location and timing of this storm are concerned. For Oklahoma City, I am thinking 2-4 inches, not the "similar to the record blizzard" predicted on TV, at least not in Oklahoma City. Blizzard like conditions will occur due to the winds, but the snowfall amounts don't look as high until you get northeast of Tulsa. However, keep in mind drifting due to high winds may give the appearance of more than 4 inches in OKC.

Location:
Snow will fall northeast of a line from near Lubbock to Abilene, TX and across nearly the entire state of Oklahoma. The only area that is not expected to see much if any snow is south of a line from Frederick to Ardmore to DeQueen, AR.

Amounts:
The most significant snows will fall north of I-40, with the heaviest snow by far impacting areas from Tulsa into southwest and central Missouri, where nearly a foot of snow is expected, northeast of Claremore, OK into Missouri. 1-3" north of a line from Altus to Ada to northern McCurtain Co. This includes the southern
sides of Oklahoma City. 1-3" across the western panhandle from Guymon west.
3-5" north of a line from Elk City to Bethany to Chandler and from Chandler to Checotah to Van Buren, Arkansas. Also 3-6" from east of Guymon across the eastern Texas panhandle. 5-8" north of a line from Gage to Stillwater to Muskogee to Tahlequah 7-12" from northeast of Ponca City to Tulsa to north of Tahlequah
Nearly a foot across far northeast OK, eastern Kansas, western Missouri but south of Kansas City and Columbia where about half a foot of snow is expected.

See the attached graphic:
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

Timing:
By 1 pm, the front should extend from Cherokee to Erick, through much of northwest OK. Showers and thunderstorms, some heavy to severe, may develop by 3 pm from near Hobart to Ponca City. This is ahead of the cold air. Tornadoes do not appear to be a threat, however gusty winds and large hail appear likely. The storms should move northeast. Vertical velocity fields from the NAM model indicate the strongest storms may occur southwest and south of OKC from near Fort Cobb to Norman.

The front extends from Ponca City to just west of OKC to Altus by 7 pm. The front should clear the Oklahoma City metro area during the 9 pm hour.

Snow should begin in northwest Oklahoma by 7 pm, and extend from near Ponca City to west of Altus by 1 am Saturday. A band of sleet for possibly 2-3 hours will accompany the changeover to snow. The changeover to sleet should extend from Pawnee to Oklahoma City to Frederick by 4 a.m. Saturday, with snow beginning in this area near sunrise.

At sunrise, the changeover to sleet then snow should extend from Tulsa to west of Ardmore. By this time, the front should extend from south-central Missouri to Fort Smith, AR to Dallas, TX. By 1 pm, the changeover should extend from east-central Missouri to far northwest Arkansas to south of McAlester, with snow pushing into the Arkansas River valley by sundown.

Blizzard like winds of 30 to 50 mph appear possible just behind the front. Expect road closures to be common across the northern 3 rows (deep) of counties, starting Saturday afternoon. The winds should gradually subside in western Oklahoma by sunset on Saturday.

Snow will taper off from West to east, ending in the panhandle by 11 am Saturday, and ending
from Ponca City to west of Oklahoma City to Lawton by sunset Saturday evening. Snow should
end in Oklahoma City by about 2 am Sunday morning. This is when the trouble begins.

The snow stalls across eastern Oklahoma and remains there through much of the night east of a line from Ponca City to just east of Oklahoma City to Ada. This will cause heavy accumulations, especially across northeast Oklahoma where heavier bands are expected closer to the track of the low. Snow will continue across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, including Muskogee, all areas east of Tulsa, and staying mainly south of the Missouri River, through Sunday night going into Monday, at midnight. The duration of this event would also favor very heavy accumulations, probably of disaster declaration levels,across much of southwest Missouri, southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma north and east of Tulsa.

Winds will finally die down in Central Oklahoma by around noon on Sunday when the system begins to pull away.

Winter Storm Watch-UPDATE

The previously mentioned Winter Storm Watch has in fact just been issued-


HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE
320 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

* TIMING: EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: HEAVY WET SNOWFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY AND
ACCUMULATING OVER 4 INCHES IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OVER 8 INCHES IN NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

* OTHER IMPACTS: WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW FREEZING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL
AND STRESS LIVESTOCK. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Winter Storm Watch

Try not to get too excited about Spring just yet; it appears another significant Winter-like blast is heading our direction for Friday evening/night into Saturday. I have attached three graphic products from the National Weather Service for your viewing and below is the latest information, also from the National Weather Service:


Despite warm temperatures Thursday and Friday, much colder air will move into the area late Friday, and a strong storm system will develop over the high plains and move toward the southern plains on Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will be 20 to 30 degrees cooler than Friday and blustery north winds will occur creating cold wind chill readings. Areas of accumulating snow appear likely. The track of the storm system is still uncertain, so it is also uncertain where the heaviest snow will fall. Anyone with travel plans this weekend is strongly encouraged to keep up with the latest weather forecasts. Before the weather turns back to winter, strong thunderstorms will be possible along the front.

It appears that a Winter Storm Watch may be issued by the National Weather Service, but the extent and specific location is yet to be determined. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as necessary.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Weather Update 1-29-10 0925



Although additional amounts of freezing drizzle and light snow were recorded overnight, we have not experienced the magnitude of icing as originally predicted for our area. Road crews continued clearing and treatments throughout the night, however as additional bands of freezing precipitation passed through the area early this morning, additional accumulations on roadways and exposed surfaces were experienced. Snow continues to fall throughout the area with anticipated accumulations of up to three inches predicted.

State-wide road conditions reports indicate “slick and hazardous” through all but southeastern Oklahoma. Travel is discouraged throughout our area. Reports of power outages are becoming more prevalent, including in some specific areas of the metro, however no wide-spread outages in the metro right now. Larger outages are reported in southwestern, southern and now southeastern portions of the state. We are not receiving significant reports of downed tree limbs in the metro as of yet, however, as the precipitation continues to fall, particularly if wind speeds increase, additional outages, falling lines, broken poles and tree limbs will compound the problems and potential for outages. Attached graphics from the National Weather Service depict a storm update and predictions for today.

From the National Weather Service –

Light snow will continue across northern and western Oklahoma early this morning. While western, southwestern Oklahoma and north Texas will see areas of freezing drizzle and freezing rain. A transition to snow across central and southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible. Travel is discouraged and even walking outdoors can be hazardous due to slick and ice covered surfaces and the potential for falling tree limbs. Precipitiatioin is expected to end and winds diminish later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures wil remain cold through Sunday.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Winter Weather Update 1-28-10 1630

Power outages in western and southwestern Oklahoma are still significant as tree limbs and heavily weighted power lines an poles continue to be problematic. Outages are occurring in our area, although typically smaller and of shorter duration.

Although precipitation is still falling, there is some good news in two areas. One, we are moving more toward receiving sleet as opposed to freezing rain. Secondly, for some odd reason the “back edge” of the precipitation coming from north Texas has rapidly cut off, with at least a temporary reprieve in precipitation an estimated four hours from Oklahoma City (if it stays as it is). This will not be the end of precipitation as regeneration is anticipated, but it may represent a reduction in overall amounts. Meteorologists are still calling for sleet and/or freezing rain in our area through 10 PM tonight, followed by snow into at least mid-day tomorrow. Actual accumulations are uncertain, but still potentially two inches of ice/sleet and possibly up to eight inches of snow.

We are continuing to monitor the situation and will provide updates as necessary.

Winter Weather Update 1-28-10 13:30 PM


We are currently at Level two activation at the RMACC.
Conditions continue to deteriorate in western and central Oklahoma, including ice accumulations in portions of Oklahoma County as a mixture of freezing rain and sleet continues to fall. Reports of broken tree limbs and downed power lines and poles are beginning to be more prevalent, particularly west of the County and into southwest Oklahoma where several areas have already been severely impacted. We can anticipate additional accumulations particularly on structures and items not in close contact with the ground, although ground coverage is being experienced.

An approaching/developing low pressure system in the SW part of the US will cause moisture and overall storm development to increase, thus “feeding” the situation here in Oklahoma and central Oklahoma. Current temperatures are in the upper 20’s in Oklahoma County with wind speeds recorded at 24-28 mph, although a large number of Mesonet sites throughout the state are beginning to be covered with ice and are unable to provide wind-related information.

All flights at Will Rogers Airport have been cancelled and travel is discouraged in a large portion of the state. OG & E currently reports no power outages in our area although larger portions of southwest Oklahoma have experienced power loss.

Precipitation is expected to change to snow sometime this evening or tonight and eventually end sometime tomorrow (Friday) afternoon.

I have attached two National Weather Service graphic products depicting both the current situation and predictions for this afternoon and evening.

We are continuing to monitor the situation and will provide additional information as available.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Winter Weather Update 1-27-10 1400hrs-EOC




We have just completed two additional conference calls with State Emergency Management and the Tulsa and Norman National Weather Forecast Offices, all of which continue to emphasize and reinforce the same basic information as has been previously provided, with one potentially significant modification, that of a shift in the “bands” of precipitation (by type) slightly to the northwest. As the attached graphics indicate, we here in central Oklahoma are now potentially facing increased amounts of ice and/or sleet, with slightly decreased amounts of snow. The heavier snowfall is still anticipated in northwestern portions of the state. This does not mean central Oklahoma will not receive snow, just comparatively lesser amounts than previously predicted, with a potential increase in ice or sleet (see graphic 1-27-10 1300 Predicted Totals).

I continue to emphasize that storm tracking differences of even a few miles can significantly change actual precipitation amounts and type. Additionally, air temperatures above the surface are the determining factor as to what type of actual precipitation will be experienced, and because of the slow movement of these “air masses” and their relative depth or thickness, exact predictions are difficult. Also, weather professionals continue to emphasize the importance of wind conditions with this event, which are expected to be 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

One of the greatest challenges with this event is determining the exact timing of freezing conditions as the system moves into Oklahoma. Current predictions indicate freezing air temperatures will likely exist in our area around the 0700-0800 timeframe tomorrow (Thursday) morning. It sounds like the major portion of the precipitation may not actually arrive until closer to noon, but again, we are looking at specific details and they are difficult to accurately identify.

Please note that central Oklahoma is included in a Winter Storm WARNING for Thursday morning into Friday. From the National Weather Service-

Today is the last day to prepare before a major winter storm arrives in Oklahoma and north Texas. Beginning tomorrow…. rain will change to freezing rain and sleet from western North Texas and northeast across southwest and central Oklahoma. Widespread power outages will be possible… further north, across northern Oklahoma… the main impact will come from very heavy snow, possibly up to 10 inches in some areas.


We will continue to monitor conditions and forecasts and keep you updated as information is made available.

Winter Weather Update-1/27/10





Updates and additional information continue to come in and I have attached the latest graphic products from the National Weather Service. Additional meetings and conference calls are scheduled for various points during the day today and I will provide information updates as necessary and available. Again, winter weather is difficult to track and specifically forecast, however, the consistency in available models and information we receive tends to indicate pretty much what we have been saying, at least at this point. There will likely be some modifications as the event and storm elements draw closer to the state.

Latest from the National Weather Service-

Mild weather will continue today, before a strong cold front and storm system approach from late tonight through early Friday. This storm will produce a mixture of heavy rain, ice, sleet, and snow over Oklahoma and western north Texas. Most of the precipitation will occur Thursday, which will be windy and much colder. Snow is expected in northern Oklahoma. Central and southern Oklahoma are expecting freezing rain and sleet before the snow. The precipitation will end Friday morning while the cold air will persist into Saturday. A warming trend begins on Monday.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Winter Weather Update-EOC/NWS

There is still a great deal of uncertainty among forecasters and computer models as to the exact impact the approaching winter weather event is going to have, but it does appear that virtually all of Oklahoma will in fact be affected. We continue to participate in planning meetings and discussions, conference calls and briefings, and although there are a variety of opinions and observations, the information below appears to be the best representation, at least at this point. Again, please remember that winter weather is difficult to forecast and a variance in storm system or individual storm attribute movement of even just a few miles can significantly change what is actually experienced in any given area.

I have attached three graphic products from the National Weather Service, one depicting anticipated conditions on Wednesday, one for Thursday and a third with current precipitation predictions for the main impact of the event. Additional information from the latest Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index posting (SPIA Index, an additional tool typically used by electric utilities and other applications to evaluate ice conditions and the resulting impact) indicates that our area may experience significant power outages including main feeder lines and broken tree limbs, etc. Some of these outages, should they occur, may last for several days. Freezing temperatures and strong winds are expected to continue into the weekend, with Sunday potentially being the first day above freezing (barely).

In addition to constant monitoring of weather forecasts and actual conditions, planning should include the consideration of:
1) potential power outages, including what critical aspects of your home or business will be affected (heat, water supply, medical-related power, etc.)
2) cancellation of travel plans, both incoming and outgoing. Should the event occur as currently predicted, all travel will be strongly discouraged.
3) plan for and make accommodations for the elderly, very young, pets and those who need other forms of assistance. Do not wait until adverse weather happens!

Additional meetings, briefings and conference calls are scheduled to continue throughout the upcoming event and I will keep you advised as conditions change or additional information is made available. For now, here is the latest from the National Weather Service-

Dry and mild weather will continue through Wednesday, before a strong cold front and storm system approach. This storm will produce a mixture of heavy rain, ice, sleet, and snow over Oklahoma and western north Texas. Most of the precipitation will occur Thursday, which will be windy and much colder. Snow is expected in northern Oklahoma. Central and southern Oklahoma are expecting freezing rain and sleet before the snow. Precipitation will end Friday morning and the cold air will persist into Saturday. A warming trend begins Sunday.


3 attachments — Download all attachments View all images
Wednesday Forecast.jpg
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Thur-Fri Overview 1-26-10.jpg
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Weather Info/Links From Greg Whitworth

I'm short on time to write a forecast discussion since I too was one of the people out getting groceries last night. I want to make you aware of some weather links you can check yourself to get snow forecasts and maps; the same information I look at.

I'm quite concerned about a major event. The ECMWF model has been saying this system will track across slower than projected. The NAM and GFS models are slowly catching onto this and with each version, are increasing the total amount of moisture in the forecast. It's now well over 2" in OKC and in one case, the NAM was dumping out 3" of moisture over OKC. I'm less concerned about the panhandle, I don't think the impacts will be quite as high as what the models have been saying.

This system looks to take a trek very close to the December 24th storm. That means heavy snow in central and southern Oklahoma. Unfortunately, the cold air doesn't look as deep as it did with the December 24th storm, which means there may be some significant icing especially central and southern OK before the change over to snow.

I think the ice will begin around sunrise on Thursday and change to snow near mid-afternoon to sunset in central OK, and sooner in northwest OK. I haven't looked at too many detains for the northwest part of the state, but that's why I'm providing links to the maps so you can look for yourself.

We're talking about a significant, possibly historical event; one that will likely require another disaster declaration for some parts of the state. The models are dumping out over 10" of snow in the main band with anywhere from 1/4 an inch of ice to nearly an inch. They are very persistant with the high totals for the most part. See the maps to know if your area is going to be one of the high impact areas. I will try to write a forecast discussion up sometime this evening.

Here's a timeline chart forecast for Norman, OK produced by a computer at WLNS TV in Lansing, Michigan. It takes all the model information, reprocesses it, and dumps out snow and ice total forecasts. Keep in mind this forecast is ONLY for Norman, OK and the computer does not do any other cities.around here other than Amarillo and Wichita.
It has the date and time in GMT, the wind, Here's what the categories mean:
SfcT = surface temperature
Ptype = preciptation type
SRat = snow ratio, 1 inch of rain equals this many inches of snow (for instance 15 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain)
TotSN = total snow
TotQPF = if you melted the frozen stuff, how much rain it would be (the liquid equivalent of the event)
TotPL = total sleet
TotZR = Total Freezing Rain

http://66.70.209.226/weather/snow/oun.txt


Here's another site I use a lot. Earl Barker's modeling site. It has total snowfall and total ice on a map. The site is somewhat complex, so let me explain what you should look at and give some shortcuts.

http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

The links like this are the ones you'll want:

NAM Radar Site Snowfall Overlays: NAM Snowfall - fixed 12/08/2009 0630Z
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.htm
Click on the dot on the map.
Total snow from the NAM model for it's versions that come out around 10 pm and 10 am.

GFS Radar Site Snowfall Overlays: GFS Snowfall
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.htm
Click on the dot on the map.
Total snowfall from the GFS model for it's versions that come out around 10 pm and 10 am.

More regional maps and ice charts:
Region Snowfall: Regional Snowfall
NAM snow (the version that comes out around 10 am and 10 pm):
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
NAM sleet accumulation:
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_84HR.gif
NAM freezing rain accumulation:
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gif

NAM model (the version that comes out around 4 am and 4 pm):
Total snow:
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

GFS snowfall (10 am and 10 pm version):
http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif
GFS freezing rain:
http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gif
GFS sleet:
http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_84HR.gif

GFS snowfall (4 am and 4 pm version):
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif
GFS sleet:
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_84HR.gif
GFS freezing rain:
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gif

Greg Whitworth

Potential Winter Weather-EOC and NWS

Despite our best wishes and intentions, it appears that another significant winter weather event may be heading for our area. As mentioned on previous occasions, winter weather is more difficult to accurately forecast, particularly specific attributes in specific areas. That is why you will likely notice some “generalities” in the information provided below. We will continue to monitor the situation and keep you advised as this event moves closer and more accurate information is made available.

Latest from the National Weather Service, potentially affecting all areas of Oklahoma in one form or another-




URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

* AFTER TWO WEEKS OF RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER... A WINTER STORM
WILL TAKE AIM ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY. COLD AIR
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER WILL BE THE
RESULT.


* TIMING: THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL
BE FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACTS: FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON
POWER LINES AND ELEVATED SURFACES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SLEET AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ALTHOUGH SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS: GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35
MPH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL STRESS TO POWER LINES THAT HAVE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME BLOWING AN DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Wind Chill Advisory

Statement as of 4:52 AM CST on January 07, 2010


... Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM CST Friday...
... Winter Weather Advisory will expire at 5 am CST early this
morning...

* frigid air will continue to plunge southward from the northern
plains as strong northerly winds continue at 25 to 35 mph.

* Timing: the coldest wind chill values are expected Thursday
through Thursday night. The winds will not be as strong on
Friday but dangerously cold wind chill values will still
occur.

* Central Oklahoma can expect wind chills to range from -15 to -5
with 0 to 5 degrees along the Red River valley.

* Impacts: light snow showers and snow flurries will be possible
through the mid morning but no accumulations will occur.
Freezing drizzle last night and early this morning has left some
roads and sidewalks slick and hazardous. Please use caution when
venturing outside.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds
will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in
frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.
If you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Winter Weather Update

In case you haven't heard, it's cold and about to get a lot colder!!

We will experience some of the coldest temperatures we've seen in the last 10-15 years beginning Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. The cold temps will combine with nasty north winds to produce dangerously low wind chills.

The front that will usher in the cold air and strong winds will move through the area Wednesday afternoon. Behind the front, there may be enough moisture to cause some very light freezing drizzle and/or light snow. We don't expect this to be a big problem, but as cold as it's been, it would only take a little freezing drizzle to make roads slick and hazardous Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, so keep that in mind. The bitter cold will persist into Saturday before temperatures moderate and allow us to climb above freezing.

Most locations will see a prolonged period - 18-24 hours or more - of wind chill readings at or below zero, with the colder values further north. This obviously is dangerous for people who are outside for any period of time. We do not anticipate issuing any type of advisory for the light winter precipitation, but there could be some travel issues if it develops. We will definitely be issuing a Wind Chill Advisory either this evening or Wednesday morning. As of right now, the forecast wind chill values are not expected to reach -20 degrees, which is the threshold for a wind chill warning, but we will be close across far northern Oklahoma.

Here are some other links that you might find helpful:

CDC Guide on Extreme Cold Safety - http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/pdf/cold_guide.pdf
WFO Norman Winter Weather Safety Page - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=safety-winter
WFO Norman Wind Chill Information - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=safety-winter-windchill
NWS Wind Chill Page - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/windchill/
Protecting your pipes (Plano TX EM Facebook Page) - http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=235104348525

As always, if you have questions, let me know.

Rick
--
Rick Smith
Warning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service - Norman Forecast Office

Monday, January 4, 2010

Weather Situation for This Week/D.Barnes/EOC







Latest from the National Weather Service- anticipated extremely cold temperatures later this week and a 40% chance of freezing precipitation Wednesday night.

NWS - A cold surface high pressure, extending from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains, will maintain cold northerly winds today. Southerly winds will return tonight into Tuesday which will help warm temperatures for Tuesday (mid-30’s for central OK). On Wednesday a strong arctic cold front will arrive. Late week highs will struggle to reach 15 to 25 degrees, while lows could drop below zero degrees by Friday morning. Dangerously low wind chill temperatures and an extended period of sub-freezing weather are likely.

Graphic representations for today (Monday) and Tuesday, Wednesday, and later in the week are attached. We will continue to monitor and provide updates as necessary.

Thanks-

David K. Barnes, Director
Oklahoma County Emergency Management