We have just completed two additional conference calls with State Emergency Management and the Tulsa and Norman National Weather Forecast Offices, all of which continue to emphasize and reinforce the same basic information as has been previously provided, with one potentially significant modification, that of a shift in the “bands” of precipitation (by type) slightly to the northwest. As the attached graphics indicate, we here in central Oklahoma are now potentially facing increased amounts of ice and/or sleet, with slightly decreased amounts of snow. The heavier snowfall is still anticipated in northwestern portions of the state. This does not mean central Oklahoma will not receive snow, just comparatively lesser amounts than previously predicted, with a potential increase in ice or sleet (see graphic 1-27-10 1300 Predicted Totals).
I continue to emphasize that storm tracking differences of even a few miles can significantly change actual precipitation amounts and type. Additionally, air temperatures above the surface are the determining factor as to what type of actual precipitation will be experienced, and because of the slow movement of these “air masses” and their relative depth or thickness, exact predictions are difficult. Also, weather professionals continue to emphasize the importance of wind conditions with this event, which are expected to be 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.
One of the greatest challenges with this event is determining the exact timing of freezing conditions as the system moves into Oklahoma. Current predictions indicate freezing air temperatures will likely exist in our area around the 0700-0800 timeframe tomorrow (Thursday) morning. It sounds like the major portion of the precipitation may not actually arrive until closer to noon, but again, we are looking at specific details and they are difficult to accurately identify.
Please note that central Oklahoma is included in a Winter Storm WARNING for Thursday morning into Friday. From the National Weather Service-
Today is the last day to prepare before a major winter storm arrives in Oklahoma and north Texas. Beginning tomorrow…. rain will change to freezing rain and sleet from western North Texas and northeast across southwest and central Oklahoma. Widespread power outages will be possible… further north, across northern Oklahoma… the main impact will come from very heavy snow, possibly up to 10 inches in some areas.
We will continue to monitor conditions and forecasts and keep you updated as information is made available.
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