Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 455 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF COLUMBIA MISSOURI TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
ERN KS INTO N CENTRAL MO. STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SE OF THE
FRONT /MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG/ AND THE CAP IS
WEAKENING...THUS STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES SEWD. THE INITIAL STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL GIVEN MORE DISCRETE CELLS AND LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE GIVEN
STORM INTERACTIONS...FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...AND SOMEWHAT
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH WEAKER FLOW ABOVE 500 MB.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE STORMS CONGEAL INTO A SEWD MOVING SQUALL LINE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.
THOMPSON