It appears there may be a threat of tornados in central OK during
the early overnight period. 12z NAM indicates vertically stacked
fields at 1 a.m. right over central Oklahoma.
In addition, 3 km helicity shows helicity near 500 over OKC and points
just east and south all the way to west of Ardmore at 1 a.m. Once
the front passes and wind shifts north, the tornado threat ends.
Until then, the threat of tornadoes continues across the eastern Texas
panhandles and other areas. 12z NAM also showed strong vertical
stackage of vertical velocity and high helicity over the eastern
two rows of the Texas panhandle with the best stackage over Hemphill
Co., TX. This correlates fairly well with tornadic cell currently in
progress over Gray Co., which continues to drop rapidly south.
Amarillo radar shows boundary collisions between the north-south
oriented outflow boundary and the cold front over Carson Co., TX.
This should help feed the southward moving tornadic storm in the
eastern TX panhandle as it continues to drop due south.
In addition, tornadic cells continue over south-central KS. I suspect
the emphasis will shift from there into central OK tonight. There could
be a window of opportunity for tornadic development in north central OK
as this transition occurs. After dark, emphasis shifts to central OK.
A few days of dry weather should exist after the front's passage tonight.
However, in south-central OK, the front's passage may not occur until
around mid-day tomorrow, so a continued threat of storms is expected in
southern OK and eastern OK tonight and for the first part of Saturday.
Greg
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