Severe storms possible over SE OK / W Arkansas Tuesday evening

** Fire danger remains somewhat high most of this week **
** Severe storms possible over SE OK / W Arkansas Tuesday evening **
MCS entering western Oklahoma has failed to maintain intensity tonight. Rainfall between .25 - .5" still looks possible as main upper shortwave should maintain at least moderate rain overnight. Windy conditions will persist before and after the rain.A wind advisory is in effect for today, with southwest winds of 30 gusting to 40 mph expected across much of western and central Oklahoma. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s appear likely due to full sunshine, low precipitation amounts, and the southwest component to the wind. The southwest component will allow dewpoints to fall as the front moves through early Monday. Low 40s look probable for Tuesday morning in most areas, with parts of NW OK in the upper 30s. SE OK will enjoy lows in the upper 40s to near 50.South winds return on Tuesday, sustained around 20 mph. This will allow moisture to return north again. As Putnam mentioned in his discussion, true rich gulf moisture has been shunted way south into the gulf by numerous frontal passages. I agree with just about everything in his discussion. I think low 70s will be the rule on Tuesday, with thunderstorm redevelopment late in the day across south central and southeast OK. Some will likely be severe.An upper level storm crosses around midnight going into Wednesday and may create some trailing precipitation on the back side of the storm system in eastern OK. Temperatures appear to be cold enough across northern OK that a bit of a light winter mix cannot be ruled out as the system pulls away. Highs should recover back into the 50s in many areas.We remain in a zonal to southwest flow through the entire period, therefore no serious cold weather is in foresight for at least 14 days, however overnight lows will be below freezing in some cases due to dry air. ECMWF hints at a touch of cold air being pulled in behind a system on Saturday.I have thrown out the GFS and DGEX in favor of the ECMWF starting Friday. ECMWF is slower with that system, and I have gone with highs in the low 60s as was the case with Saturday's GFS grids. New 0Z GFS is a touch slower but still pulls the low and front through central and western OK before mid-day. NEW 0z and old ECMWF do not have it passing until after 0Z and this would allow for 60 degree highs. ECMWF favors colder weather Saturday and I have kept yesterday's 40s which looked good.Looks like a warming trend commences afterwards but another storm system looms on the horizon going into the 16th (Monday). Ridging may then push highs back up into the 70s again the following week.
OKC 53/70 43/73 41/55 32/59 38/63 31/44 30/54 40/61 33/60 42/71 48/73 48/68pops: 100% this early am, 40% late Tuesday, 30% Wed AM, 20% Friday, 30% Monday AM.daily cloud codes: UBBBEAEBUBUE
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Greg Whitworth