This is one of the more difficult forecasts I've seen in a while. NAM-WRF has been really bad with day 2 & 3 this weekend so my confidence in it's forecast is low. Biggest problem with the NAM-WRF is a bias to develop low clouds and precipitation on the morning of day 3 as moisture returns, effecting the day 3 temperatures two days in a row. I extracted the data from the grids using BUFKIT. WRF and ADONIS are in one corner for the Tuesday forecast, going against ECMWF and GFS, even on the 0Z run to some extent.
A trough of sorts will approach the western OK border today and make a run through western OK on Tuesday. ECMWF and GFS have been consistant on spinning up a low along the trough somewhere near Wichita Falls to south central OK. NAM wants to present this front differently with winds switching to the southwest the eventually the north, with the low in northern OK. I'm buying more into the GFS solution on this one. New NAM is coming in several degrees cooler, more in line with the GFS. So upper 60s look good for Tuesday with upper 70s in Altus. It should make 70 in Woodward.
Unlike Tuesday, we have some upper level support coming in on Wednesday. The shortwave is only of moderate strength, somewhat sheered but negatively tilted. The cap looks pretty strong. There's a tongue-like surge of moisture north across the eastern half of the state, and with the remnant low along the red river, I'm wondering if it's a warm front working it's way north out of the Red River valley. If that's the case, I'm slightly concerned about supercells developing along the front. You can see the warm front in the pressure gradient and often models forecast these things too far north of their actual position. Anyway we need to keep an eye on this one for Wednesday! I went slightly above guidance on temperatures to account for the warm front.
On Thursday, a dry line surges in from the west with a cold front coming in from the north. However, there's virtually no upper support even though there's plenty of moisture to work with. I'm less concerned about Thursday. I didn't want to put any pops on Thursday but added a token 20% since everyone else has it and there could be a few spits of rain along the actual front behind the dry line. The biggest question about Thursday is one of temperature. the front appears to be slower than earlier thought and this would allow for highs in the 70s in many areas before frontal passage, maybe even near 80 in the southwest.
DGEX has been depicting a wind advisory or possible high wind warning criteria situation Thursday evening the past two days as the front moves through. This looks plausible given what just happened and the similar strength of this front.
Highs around 50 look good Friday. GFS says the air will be pretty close to saturation so I'm wondering if the clouds will break at all. I suspect it's dew points and such are a bit too high.
I can't figure out exactly what's going on with the winds on Saturday. I went with variable, GFS has it out of the north, and ECMWF hinted at a weak front sneaking in between two highs. I trended temperatures down slightly but not as cold as the rest of the tv folks. South winds look to return on Sunday and I have gone above guidance, but lower than yesterday's numbers. Things to watch down the road..GFS (for what it's worth, which isn't much!) indicates a front and upper storm on Wednesday March 4, and another March 9. Either one of these could be severe weather producers if they actually come to fruition.
OKC 32/63 43/69 46/72 52/71 38/53 30/57 40/66 49/72 46/69 48/77 41/64 43/71Windy: Monday, Thursday evening, early next week especially Wednesday.Pops: 20% Wednesday, Thursday and next Wednesday night.Cloud codes: BABBEABBAUAE
more at www.okcfox.com
Greg
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