Thursday, February 26, 2009

More Winter Weather

The national weather service in chicago has issued a
flash flood warning for,
Northern cook county in northeast illinois,
Dupage county in northeast illinois,
Southeastern kane county in northeast illinois,
Extreme northeastern kendall county in northeast illinois,
until 200 am central standard time friday,
at 751 pm central standard time , trained weather spotters reported flash
flooding
From thunderstorms over the warned area.
locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Warrenville, wheaton, aurora, park ridge, rogers
Park, northfield, lombard, itasca, glenview, franklin
Park, elmhurst, elk grove village, des plaines, carol
Stream, bensenville, evanston, addison, and the far north side
Of chicago.
A flash flood warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
People along creeks and streams should take immediate action to
Protect life and property. Do not drive across flooded roads.
, quick hitting but significant winter storm tonight,
.low pressure southwest of chicago at mid evening will cross
Southern lower michigan overnight, spreading a wide swath of
Wintry precipitation across northern michigan. Precipitation type
Will vary across the region, with primarily snow expected across
Eastern upper and portions of northern lower michigan north of m-
72. Along and south of the m-55 corridor will be mostly rain,
While in between will be a strip of mixed snow, Sleet, and
Rain or freezing rain depending on surface temperatures which
Will likely be hovering right around the freezing mark. Although
The heaviest precipitation will occur over a 6 to 9 hour time
Period, precipitation is expected to be intense with some
Embedded thunderstorms.
Given the wide variation in temperature over a short distance
Associated with this storm, any small deviation in expected
Track could result in areas expected to receive heavy snow
Picking up more sleet, freezing rain, or heavy rainfall
Instead. This is especially true for areas along the m-
72 corridor where several precipitation types are possible. Be
Sure to monitor current conditions before venturing out tonight.
, winter storm warning remains in effect until 7 am eastern standard time
friday,
A winter storm warning remains in effect until 7 am eastern standard time
friday.
Snow will overspread the area this evening and become heavy at
Times before tapering off by 4 am. A total accumulation of 5 to
10 inches of heavy wet snow is expected during this time, with
Snow briefly falling at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour during
The late evening. Heaviest snowfall is expected across eastern
Portions of chippewa and mackinac counties.
A winter storm warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
Conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of
Snow will make travel dangerous. If you must travel, use extreme
Caution.
, winter storm tonight into early friday,
.low pressure tracking from missouri to lake huron by friday
Morning will produce widespread snow across west and central
Upper michigan. Expect 5 to 9 inches over west and central upper
Michigan, greatest in the higher terrain of far west and north
Central upper michigan. Gusty north winds between the low
Pressure system and arctic high pressure over south central
Canada will produce considerable blowing and drifting snow
Tonight into friday morning.
, winter storm warning remains in effect until midnight central standard
time
Tonight,
A winter storm warning remains in effect until midnight central standard
time
Tonight.
Expect snow this evening, heavy at times. Look for total snow
Accumulations of 5 to 7 inches before the snow diminishes after
Midnight. A gusty north wind may also produce blowing and
Drifting snow tonight into early friday morning.
, bitterly cold winds chills through the night,
.an upper low pressure area over minnesota will continue to move
East through the evening. Meanwhile, arctic air combined with north
Winds will promote bitterly cold wind chills tonight into friday
Morning.
, wind chill advisory remains in effect until 12 pm central standard time
friday,
, winter storm warning will expire at 8 pm central standard time this
evening,
The winter storm warning will expire at 8 pm central standard time this
evening. A
Wind chill advisory remains in effect until 12 pm central standard time
friday.
Arctic air will combine with northerly winds to produce wind chill
Readings of 20 below to 30 below zero through friday morning.
A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and wind will
Combine to generate cold wind chills. This could result in
Frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. If
You must venture outdoors, be sure to remember your hat and
Gloves.
, winter storm warning remains in effect until midnight central standard
time
Tonight,
A winter storm warning remains in effect until midnight central standard
time
Tonight.
This winter storm warning for heavy snow means heavy snow
Accumulation is anticipated, and that snowfall rates of one inch
Per hour or greater can be expected at times. Expect snow covered
Roads and visibility less than a quarter mile. If you must
Travel, exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach
Your destination. Let someone know your travel route and expected
Arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become
Stranded. Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle, Including
A flashlight, food, and water. If you choose to travel, be
Aware that you may become stranded and that it may take many
Hours for help to arrive.
.low pressure over the central plains will continue to lift
Northeast through the mid-mississippi valley tonight, while
Canadian high pressure builds down into the northern plains. Between
These features, strong north to northwest winds will create areas
Of blowing snow into the evening hours, with sharply colder wind
Chill values expected overnight. Additional light snow accumulations
Will be possible into the evening over parts of southwest minnesota.
, winter storm warning remains in effect until 9 pm central standard time
this
Evening,
, wind chill advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 7 am
central standard time friday,
The national weather service in sioux falls has issued a wind
Chill advisory, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 7 am
central standard time friday. A winter storm warning remains in effect
until 9 pm
central standard time this evening.
Another band of generally light snow will swing across southwest
Minnesota this evening. Any additional snow accumulation is expected
To remain less than an inch. In addition to any falling snow, north
Winds will increase to 20 to 35 mph creating blowing and drifting
Snow.
As temperatures fall to just below zero later tonight, the
Lingering north wind will create dangerous wind chill values of
20 below to 30 below zero.
, heavy snow for parts of east central minnesota and west central
Wisconsin, still some snow and blowing snow into the evening
Hours over west central and south central minnesota,
.snow, heavy at times, will linger this evening over portions
Of east central minnesota and western wisconsin. Snowfall rates
Around inch per hour are likely in the twin cities
Area, hutchinson, and eau claire areas between 6 and 9 pm.
Elsewhere, the snow will continue diminishing over west central and
South central minnesota. However, north to northwest winds of 20
To 35 mph will continue to cause notable blowing and drifting of
Snow over the western minnesota.
Storm total snow accumulations will vary from 6 to 10 inches by
Friday morning.
The winter storm warning remains in effect for west central into
Central minnesota through 900 pm tonight, and until midnight
For east central minnesota and west central wisconsin.
A low pressure system responsible for the heavy snow and adverse
Wintry weather conditions was located over missouri, will track
Northeast over the lower great lakes region by friday morning.
Stay tuned for later forecasts and winter weather product updates
On this winter storm.
, winter storm warning remains in effect until 9 pm central standard time
this
Evening,
A winter storm warning remains in effect until 9 pm central standard time
this
Evening.
Snow will continue to wind down across the area this evening.
Additional snowfall amounts of one to two inches are likely
Before midnight. Gusty north to northwest winds will restrict
Visibilities to less than a mile, especially in open and rural
Areas into the evening hours. Thus, the winter storm warning has
Been extended through 900 pm tonight, for some additional snow
Accumulations along with some blowing and drifting snow. Travel
Will difficult or nearly impossible. Motorists are urged to
Postpone their travel unless absolutely necessary.

Monday, February 23, 2009

High Fire Danger Monday,Slight chance of severe Wednesday,More high winds Thursday evening

This is one of the more difficult forecasts I've seen in a while. NAM-WRF has been really bad with day 2 & 3 this weekend so my confidence in it's forecast is low. Biggest problem with the NAM-WRF is a bias to develop low clouds and precipitation on the morning of day 3 as moisture returns, effecting the day 3 temperatures two days in a row. I extracted the data from the grids using BUFKIT. WRF and ADONIS are in one corner for the Tuesday forecast, going against ECMWF and GFS, even on the 0Z run to some extent.
A trough of sorts will approach the western OK border today and make a run through western OK on Tuesday. ECMWF and GFS have been consistant on spinning up a low along the trough somewhere near Wichita Falls to south central OK. NAM wants to present this front differently with winds switching to the southwest the eventually the north, with the low in northern OK. I'm buying more into the GFS solution on this one. New NAM is coming in several degrees cooler, more in line with the GFS. So upper 60s look good for Tuesday with upper 70s in Altus. It should make 70 in Woodward.
Unlike Tuesday, we have some upper level support coming in on Wednesday. The shortwave is only of moderate strength, somewhat sheered but negatively tilted. The cap looks pretty strong. There's a tongue-like surge of moisture north across the eastern half of the state, and with the remnant low along the red river, I'm wondering if it's a warm front working it's way north out of the Red River valley. If that's the case, I'm slightly concerned about supercells developing along the front. You can see the warm front in the pressure gradient and often models forecast these things too far north of their actual position. Anyway we need to keep an eye on this one for Wednesday! I went slightly above guidance on temperatures to account for the warm front.
On Thursday, a dry line surges in from the west with a cold front coming in from the north. However, there's virtually no upper support even though there's plenty of moisture to work with. I'm less concerned about Thursday. I didn't want to put any pops on Thursday but added a token 20% since everyone else has it and there could be a few spits of rain along the actual front behind the dry line. The biggest question about Thursday is one of temperature. the front appears to be slower than earlier thought and this would allow for highs in the 70s in many areas before frontal passage, maybe even near 80 in the southwest.
DGEX has been depicting a wind advisory or possible high wind warning criteria situation Thursday evening the past two days as the front moves through. This looks plausible given what just happened and the similar strength of this front.
Highs around 50 look good Friday. GFS says the air will be pretty close to saturation so I'm wondering if the clouds will break at all. I suspect it's dew points and such are a bit too high.
I can't figure out exactly what's going on with the winds on Saturday. I went with variable, GFS has it out of the north, and ECMWF hinted at a weak front sneaking in between two highs. I trended temperatures down slightly but not as cold as the rest of the tv folks. South winds look to return on Sunday and I have gone above guidance, but lower than yesterday's numbers. Things to watch down the road..GFS (for what it's worth, which isn't much!) indicates a front and upper storm on Wednesday March 4, and another March 9. Either one of these could be severe weather producers if they actually come to fruition.
OKC 32/63 43/69 46/72 52/71 38/53 30/57 40/66 49/72 46/69 48/77 41/64 43/71Windy: Monday, Thursday evening, early next week especially Wednesday.Pops: 20% Wednesday, Thursday and next Wednesday night.Cloud codes: BABBEABBAUAE
more at www.okcfox.com
Greg

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Winter Weather

, One last wave of snow to move through this evening,
.low pressure moving into northern california will bring one
Last round of snow and snow showers to the sierra and northeast
California through this evening, with activity expected to
Diminish overnight as the low weakens.
Significant snow accumulations and hazardous winter driving conditions
Will occur in the sierra into this evening. Travelers should slow
Down and allow extra time to reach their destinations. Carry tire
Chains, food, water, blankets and a flashlight in your car in
Case of an emergency.
Check our website at weather.gov/reno or listen to noaa weather
Radio for updates on this situation.
, winter storm warning now in effect until 10 pm pacific standard time
this evening,
The winter storm warning for heavy snow is now in effect until 10 pm
pacific standard time this evening.
additional snow accumulation through this evening: 2 to 5 inches
West of highway 395 with locally higher amounts near passes
Above 5500 feet. Elsewhere, up to one inch is possible.
winds: south winds around 10 mph. Over higher passes, wind gusts
Up to 35 mph.
impacts: snow packed and icy roads, especially along highway
89, and highways 36 and 44 west of susanville. Visibility below
One-quarter mile at times in heavier snow bands.
, less snowfall in the southern mountains with winter weather
Continuing over the northern mountains,
.the northern portion of a winter storm will continue producing
Snowfall over the northern mountains and portions of the central
Colorado mountains for tonight through wednesday. Winter weather
Conditions will continue of the northern colorado mountains through
Wednesday night. In addition to the snowfall, gusty winds will cause
Areas of blowing and drifting snow across the high country.
Snowfall decreased substantially over southwest colorado and the
Winter storm warning and winter weather advisory were cancelled.
Snowfall became scattered over the roan and tavaputs plateau, and
The bookcliffs, so these winter weather advisories was also cancelled.
Anyone planning travel into the mountains of eastern utah through
Tuesday night and western colorado through wednesday night should
Monitor the latest forecasts by visiting the national weather
Service grand junction web site at weather.gov/gjt.
, winter storm warning remains in effect until 6 pm mountain standard time
Wednesday,
A winter storm warning remains in effect until 6 pm mountain standard time
Wednesday.
Snow will become widespread late this afternoon, and may be
Heavy at times. Occasional snow is then expected through
Wednesday. Snow accumulations totaling 8 to 16 inches are expected
By early wednesday evening. Additionally, winds gusting 40 mph
Will create areas of blowing and drifting snow on passes and
Ridges today and this evening.
A winter storm warning means significant amounts of snow, Are
Expected, as well as reduced visibilities. This will make travel
Very hazardous or impossible.
, winter storm warning remains in effect until 11 pm mountain standard time
this
Evening,
A winter storm warning remains in effect until 11 pm mountain standard time
this
Evening.
This warning is in effect for the eastern san juan mountains
Above 10000 feet, including wolf creek and cumbres passes.
Snow and blowing snow will continue through this evening.
Southwest winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph will
Create areas of blowing snow. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 14
Inches can be expected with locally higher amounts possible.
Precautionary/preparedness actions,
Strong winds and reduced visibility are expected due to heavy
Snowfall and blowing snow.
Avoid travel in the warning area. If you are planning to travel
In the warning area during the time of the warning, listen to
The latest weather forecast and consider traveling at another
Time or by another route. If you must travel in the warning area
During the time of the warning, take along a winter survival
Kit. If you become stranded in a rural area, stay with your
Vehicle until help arrives. To keep warm in your vehicle, run
Your engine 10 minutes each hour, and make sure the exhaust pipe
Is clear of snow to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.
, a significant winter storm looms for western maine and
Northern, central and southeast new hampshire wednesday night
Into thursday night,
.low pressure over the great lakes wednesday afternoon will move
East, as a secondary low pressure system develops over central
England late wednesday night and thursday morning. The secondary
Low will move slowly north across northern new england into late
Thursday night. The combination of systems may bring a significant
Winter storm to the region, beginning wednesday evening and
Lasting into thursday night.
Look for the snow to develop from west to east during wednesday
Evening. The snow may fall heavily at times late wednesday evening
Into early thursday morning across much of the area. As milder
Air tries to come onshore near the coast, the snow may mix with
Or even change to rain toward daybreak thursday.
The heaviest snow will end thursday morning across southern new
Hampshire and southwest maine, but continue across the rest of
The area into thursday afternoon. Near the coast, milder air from
The ocean may cause the snow to change to rain, especially south
And east of route 95.
The precipitation may become lighter for a time thursday afternoon
And thursday evening. However, as an upper level low approaches,
More snow can be expected, especially across the mountains.
At this time, there is the potential for more than 6 inches of
Storm total snowfall for the entire region, with significantly
More possible across central new hampshire and interior sections
Of western and central maine. If you have travel plans during this
Period, be sure to keep abreast of the latest forecasts, and
Make alternate plans should winter storm warning be issued.
, winter storm watch in effect from wednesday evening through
Late thursday night,
The national weather service in gray has issued a winter storm
Watch, which is in effect from wednesday evening through late
Thursday night.
Look for the snow to develop from west to east during wednesday
Evening. The snow may fall heavily at times late wednesday evening
Into early thursday morning across much of the area. As milder
Air tries to come onshore near the coast, the snow may mix with
Or even change to rain toward daybreak thursday.
The heaviest snow will end thursday morning across southern new
Hampshire and southwest maine, but continue across the rest of
The area into thursday afternoon. Near the coast, milder air from
The ocean may cause the snow to change to rain, especially south
And east of route 95.
The precipitation may become lighter for a time thursday afternoon
And thursday evening. However, as an upper level low approaches,
More snow can be expected, especially across the mountains.
At this time, there is the potential for more than 6 inches of
Storm total snowfall for the entire region, with significantly
More possible across central new hampshire and interior sections
Of western and central maine.
A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant
Snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
, winter storm taking aim on northern michigan,
.low pressure over the central plains will continue to organize as
It moves northeast towards southern michigan tonight and
Wednesday, spreading a swath of accumulating snow over northern
Michigan. Additional energy diving in from the northern plains
Will continue to intensify the system as it slows down just to our
East. This will cause accumulating snow to continue through
Thursday, especially in favored snowbelt regions of eastern upper
And northwest lower michigan.
, winter weather advisory in effect from 10 pm this evening to
7 pm eastern standard time wednesday,
, winter storm watch now in effect from wednesday evening
Through thursday evening,
The national weather service in gaylord has issued a winter
Weather advisory for snow, which is in effect from 10 pm this
Evening to 7 pm eastern standard time wednesday. The winter storm watch is
now in
Effect from wednesday evening through thursday evening.
Snow will continue across the area through wednesday, becoming locally
Heavy at times later this evening through wednesday morning. 4 to
6 inches of accumulation is expected, with locally higher amounts
Possible. In addition, brief heavy snowfall rates are
Expected, occasionally dropping visibilities to a quarter mile
Or less.
Although snow may decrease in intensity wednesday afternoon, a
Second and possibly more significant system will move into the area
Wednesday night and continue into thursday, bringing additional
Accumulating snow. This second wave will be accompanied by gusty
Winds and increasingly colder air, which will enhance the snow as
It moves over the unfrozen great lakes waters. The gusty winds
Will create blowing and drifting snow with areas of reduced
Visibilities. The potential exists for additional accumulations of
6 inches or more wednesday night and thursday.
A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant
Snow that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest
Forecasts.
A winter weather advisory for snow means that periods of snow will
Cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and
Limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
, heavy snow and blowing snow expected wednesday into thursday
Near lake superior,
.a low pressure system developing over the central plains will
Gradually strengthen as it tracks to southern lake huron by late
Wednesday. To the north of the low, look for light to moderate
Snow to fall over much of upper michigan tonight. On wednesday,
Increasing northerly winds will bring colder air across lake
Superior, resulting in heavier lake effect snow and blowing snow
Near lake superior. Expect the snow and blowing snow to continue
Across much of upper michigan through wednesday night, and over
Central upper michigan into thursday.
, winter storm warning remains in effect from 1 am wednesday to
7 pm eastern standard time thursday,
A winter storm warning remains in effect from 1 am wednesday to
7 pm eastern standard time thursday.
Look for light to moderate snow to develop during the overnight
Hours tonight. Expect the snow to intensify during the day
Wednesday as north winds increase and temperatures fall. Wind
Gusts of 35 to 50 mph are possible wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning, which will result in blizzard conditions at
Times. Look for conditions to improve slowly thursday afternoon
And evening. Total snowfall amounts of 10 to 18 inches are
Possible from this storm, greatest over the higher terrain from
Negaunee to skandia, trenary and chatham.
Precautionary/preparedness actions,
A winter storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means
Severe winter weather conditions are expected. Significant
Amounts of snow, along with widespread blowing snow, are
Forecast that will make travel dangerous. Travel is strongly
Discouraged wednesday afternoon through thursday morning when
Blizzard conditions will occur at times.
, winter storm headed for the north carolina mountains,
.moisture coming off the great lakes behind a low pressure system
In the mid atlantic, combined with falling temperatures behind a
Cold front, will bring upslope snow to the north carolina
Mountains wednesday night. Snowfall rates will increase during the
Day thursday and continue thursday night before tapering off.
, winter storm watch in effect from late wednesday night through
Late thursday night,
The national weather service in greenville-spartanburg has issued
A winter storm watch, which is in effect from late wednesday
Night through late thursday night.
Snowfall will increase over the north carolina mountains wednesday
Night and increase during the day thursday. Snowfall amounts of 2
To 4 inches will be possible in those counties along the tennessee
Border, before snow ends early friday morning.
A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant
Snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
, winter storm watch in effect from wednesday afternoon through
Thursday afternoon,
The national weather service in albany has issued a winter storm
Watch, which is in effect from wednesday afternoon through
Thursday afternoon, for the southern and western adirondacks.
Snow will overspread the watch area late wednesday morning and
Early wednesday afternoon. The snow will continue into wednesday
Night and could be heavy at times wednesday evening. Seven or more
Inches of snow are possible wednesday and wednesday night, with
Additional accumulations possible on thursday as light snow
Persists all day long.
A storm will move from the central mississippi valley early
Wednesday, to just north of lake ontario by thursday morning. As
It does so, a new storm will form over eastern new england on
Thursday, and move north through maine thursday night.
A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant
Snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
, wintry mix of precipitation to impact the north country,
.an area of low pressure developing over the ohio valley will
Track across northern new york wednesday night before redeveloping
Off the new england coast on thursday. Snow will begin on
Wednesday afternoon across new york and rapidly spread east across
Vermont by wednesday evening. Warmer air from the south will work
Into the area causing snow to mix with and turn over to rain
Across the lower elevations of new york on wednesday night and the
Champlain valley towards daybreak. Strong southeasterly winds will
Also accompany this system on wednesday night, especially across
The western slopes of the green mountains.
, winter storm watch in effect from wednesday afternoon through
Thursday evening,
The national weather service in burlington has issued a winter
Storm watch for the northern adirondacks of new york and east of
The green mountains of vermont, which is in effect from wednesday
Afternoon through thursday evening. Snow accumulations of 4 to 8
Inches are possible across the adirondacks of new york and eastern
Green mountains of vermont by thursday evening.
Snow will begin across northern new york on wednesday afternoon
And rapidly spread east across vermont by wednesday evening. Snow
Will mix with rain across the lower elevations of new york and
Vermont by thursday morning as warmer air moves into the area.
A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant
Snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
, a winter storm will impact the region through wednesday
Morning,
.the storm system that moved through northern utah bringing
Widespread snow this morning has tracked rapidly into
Wyoming. Snowfall will gradually taper for the valley areas of
Northern utah this afternoon, but an unstable westerly flow aloft
Will maintain snowfall across the mountains of northern utah
Tonight into wednesday morning.
, winter storm warning in effect until 8 pm mountain standard time this
evening for
The benches,
, winter weather advisory remains in effect until 8 pm mountain standard
time this
Evening for the valley floor,
The national weather service in salt lake city has issued a
Winter storm warning for heavy snow for the benches, which is in
Effect until 8 pm mountain standard time this evening. A winter weather
advisory for
Snow on the valley floor remains in effect until 8 pm mountain standard
time this
Evening.
This warning is in effect for the benches of davis and weber
Counties, including the us-89 corridor. The advisory remains in
Effect for the valley floor of the northern wasatch front.
Additional snowfall of 2-4 inches are expected across the
Benches, bringing storm totals to 7-10 inches along the us-89
Corridor north of farmington. Additional accumulations of 1-2
Inches are expected across the valley floors, bringing storm
Totals to 3-6 inches.
Snow will continue heavy at times through this afternoon before
Tapering off to lighter snow showers for this evenings commute.
Precautionary/preparedness actions,
A winter storm warning means significant accumulations of snow are
Expected or occurring. Driving conditions may be hazardous. Use
Caution. Keep a winter storm survival kit in your vehicle in case
Of an emergency.
A winter weather advisory means that snow accumulations will
Cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
Roads. Use caution while driving.
For winter road conditions from the utah department of
Transportation visit, http://www.commuterlink.utah.govor dial
511.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Severe storms possible over SE OK / W Arkansas Tuesday evening

** Fire danger remains somewhat high most of this week **
** Severe storms possible over SE OK / W Arkansas Tuesday evening **
MCS entering western Oklahoma has failed to maintain intensity tonight. Rainfall between .25 - .5" still looks possible as main upper shortwave should maintain at least moderate rain overnight. Windy conditions will persist before and after the rain.A wind advisory is in effect for today, with southwest winds of 30 gusting to 40 mph expected across much of western and central Oklahoma. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s appear likely due to full sunshine, low precipitation amounts, and the southwest component to the wind. The southwest component will allow dewpoints to fall as the front moves through early Monday. Low 40s look probable for Tuesday morning in most areas, with parts of NW OK in the upper 30s. SE OK will enjoy lows in the upper 40s to near 50.South winds return on Tuesday, sustained around 20 mph. This will allow moisture to return north again. As Putnam mentioned in his discussion, true rich gulf moisture has been shunted way south into the gulf by numerous frontal passages. I agree with just about everything in his discussion. I think low 70s will be the rule on Tuesday, with thunderstorm redevelopment late in the day across south central and southeast OK. Some will likely be severe.An upper level storm crosses around midnight going into Wednesday and may create some trailing precipitation on the back side of the storm system in eastern OK. Temperatures appear to be cold enough across northern OK that a bit of a light winter mix cannot be ruled out as the system pulls away. Highs should recover back into the 50s in many areas.We remain in a zonal to southwest flow through the entire period, therefore no serious cold weather is in foresight for at least 14 days, however overnight lows will be below freezing in some cases due to dry air. ECMWF hints at a touch of cold air being pulled in behind a system on Saturday.I have thrown out the GFS and DGEX in favor of the ECMWF starting Friday. ECMWF is slower with that system, and I have gone with highs in the low 60s as was the case with Saturday's GFS grids. New 0Z GFS is a touch slower but still pulls the low and front through central and western OK before mid-day. NEW 0z and old ECMWF do not have it passing until after 0Z and this would allow for 60 degree highs. ECMWF favors colder weather Saturday and I have kept yesterday's 40s which looked good.Looks like a warming trend commences afterwards but another storm system looms on the horizon going into the 16th (Monday). Ridging may then push highs back up into the 70s again the following week.
OKC 53/70 43/73 41/55 32/59 38/63 31/44 30/54 40/61 33/60 42/71 48/73 48/68pops: 100% this early am, 40% late Tuesday, 30% Wed AM, 20% Friday, 30% Monday AM.daily cloud codes: UBBBEAEBUBUE
more at www.okcfox.com
Greg Whitworth

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Passing of Meteorologist Rick Tasetano

This is not a weather report but I wanted to pass this on to those who may have known Rick.

Former longtime KTOK meteorologist Rick Tasetano died early today. Details are not yet available and funeral services are pending. KTOK was notified of Rick's death by the family. He had been ailing in recent months. Rick was a former career Air Force man where he retired after decades as a meteorologist. He was part of the weather unit at Tinker Air Force base where much of the early tornado warning systems were developed. He was a veteran of the Korean War where he survived at least one crash of a weather plane. Rick joined KTOK in the mid-1980s and became known for such sayings as his 'full skirt alert' warnings to women on windy days. He was a native of New York City and still carried his Bronx accent as he predicted the weather and covered severe weather. Rick was notorious for bringing a cot to his small weatherroom at the KTOK studios and spending many nights monitoring severe weather and issuing alerts to the radio station listeners.

Rick was also with Emergency Management and stayed in radio contact with us, keeping us up to date on the storms while storm spotting. He will be missed.