Drought Statement From NWS, Norman, Oklahoma

Provided by - NWS Southern Region HQ -

AXUS74 KOUN 111834
DGTOUN
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2009
...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SYNOPSIS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DATED JANUARY 6TH 2009...DESIGNATED
SEVERE DROUGHT IN THE FOLLOWING OKLAHOMA COUNTIES...ATOKA...BRYAN...
COAL...JOHNSTON...AND MARSHALL. SEVERE DROUGHT WAS ALSO INDICATED
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CARTER COUNTY TO THE EAST OF ARDMORE.
SURROUNDING THE SEVERE DROUGHT AREA...MODERATE DROUGHT HAD EXPANDED
NORTHWARD TO ADA AND PURCELL AND WESTWARD TO NEAR WAURIKA AND
DUNCAN. OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND
ALL OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WERE ABNORMALLY DRY. THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR USES FIVE CATEGORIES OF DROUGHT...LABELED D0-D4. FOR
COMPARISON...SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS REACHED
THE D4 CATEGORY DURING 2006.
DROUGHT LEVELS...
D0 -- ABNORMALLY DRY OR RECOVERING FROM DROUGHT
D1 -- MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 -- SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 -- EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 -- EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
IN 2007...WHILE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EXPERIENCED ITS WETTEST YEAR ON
RECORD...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OBSERVED NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS WAS AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE THE
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT THAT HAD PLAGUED THE REGION PRIOR TO THAT YEAR.
IN 2008...HOWEVER...SUCCESSIVE MONTHS OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
HAS LED THE REGION BACK INTO A DEVELOPING DROUGHT. FROM MAY THROUGH
DECEMBER IN 2008...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EXPERIENCED
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS RANGING FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES NEARLY EVERY MONTH.
ONLY AUGUST BROUGHT WITH IT PRECIPITATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE YEAR FINISHED WITH ONLY 60 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL
RAINFALL...AND THE SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER PERIOD WITNESSED ONLY
25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
THERE WERE NO SPECIFIC DROUGHT RELATED IMPACTS REPORTED FROM
OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. IF DROUGHT PERSISTS OR
WORSENS...HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACTS
IN CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION...AND WILDFIRES.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
THE RECENT DRY SPELL HAS ALLOWED FINE FUELS TO BECOME VERY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS REFLECT LA NINA AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY 2009.
TYPICALLY UNDER LA NINA...OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL
EXPERIENCE COLD INTRUSIONS FOLLOWED BY VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
THEREFORE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM MAY INCREASE DURING
THESE WARM PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHICH USUALLY EXPERIENCE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
TWELVE COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAKE UP THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CLIMATE DIVISION. AS OF DECEMBER 30TH...ALL OF THESE COUNTIES WERE
DESIGNATED IN THE MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORIES. WITHIN THIS
CLIMATE DIVISION...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATE SURVEY MEASURES A PLETHORA
OF CLIMATE DATA...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION...FROM 17 SITES. DURING
THE 120 DAY PERIOD FROM SEPTEMBER 9TH TO JANUARY 6TH...THE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION AT THOSE SITES WAS 4.66 INCHES. THIS REPRESENTS A
DEFICIT OF 8.77 INCHES...OR ABOUT 35 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WHEN
COMPARED TO THE SAME 120 DAY PERIOD IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THIS YEAR
RANKS AS THE 4TH DRIEST SINCE 1921.
DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD FROM OCTOBER 7TH TO JANUARY 6TH...ALL
OKLAHOMA CLIMATE DIVISIONS EXCEPT THE PANHANDLE EXPERIENCED BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCES
FORECASTS OUT TO THREE MONTHS. IN THESE FORECASTS...THE 90-DAY
AVERAGED TEMPERATURE...AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION...ARE CATEGORIZED
AS HAVING A GREATER CHANCE OF BEING ABOVE NORMAL...OR A GREATER
CHANCE OF BEING BELOW NORMAL...OR AS HAVING AN EQUAL CHANCE TO BE
ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL.
IN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THE OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY
THROUGH MARCH INDICATED A GREATER CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATED A GREATER CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN OKLAHOMA...AND AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE...IN
THE LONG TERM...THE AREA OF SEVERE DROUGHT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT. THIS IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER...IS
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR CLOSER TO MARCH...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO THE WINTER MONTHS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DROUGHT RELATED IMPACTS MAY INCREASE BEFORE IMPROVING
TOWARD MARCH.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
MOST RIVERS...MOST STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE AT NEAR NORMAL FLOWS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE REGION... WITH FLOWS IN THE UPPER WASHITA
BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...
STREAMFLOWS ARE MUCH BELOW NORMAL ALONG PARTS OF THE RED RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JANUARY 11TH...
LEVELS AT MOST AREA RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR THEIR NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER DRAINAGE AREA WHILE MOST RESERVOIRS IN THE RED
RIVER DRAINAGE BASIN RANGE ARE ABOUT 4 TO 10 FEET BELOW THEIR NORMAL
POOLS OR ABOUT 15 TO 40 PERCENT BELOW THEIR NORMAL STORAGE
CAPACITIES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS
AND NORMAL POOLS.
NORMAL LATEST
RESERVOIR POOL (FT) ELEV. FT)
*** ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN ***
GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE 1125.0 1125.48
KAW LAKE 1012.7 1012.64
FORT SUPPLY LAKE 2004.0 2004.03
LAKE HEFNER 1199.0 1198.50
CANTON LAKE 1615.4 1615.26
LAKE OVERHOLSER 1242.0 1241.34
ARCADIA LAKE 1006.0 1006.09
LAKE THUNDERBIRD 1039.0 1038.62
*** RED RIVER BASIN ***
ALTUS LAKE 1559.0 1548.96
TOM STEED LAKE 1411.0 1407.37
LAKE KEMP 1144.0 1138.11
LAKE KICKAPOO 1045.0 1035.39
LAKE ARROWHEAD 926.4 920.12
WAURIKA LAKE 951.4 950.79
FOSS LAKE 1652.0 1641.86
FORT COBB LAKE 1342.0 1342.51
ARBUCKLE LAKE 872.0 868.01
LAKE TEXOMA 619.0 616.50
ATOKA LAKE 590.0 581.69
*** BRAZOS RIVER BASIN ***
MILLERS CREEK RSVR. 1333.9 1328.33
RESTRICTIONS...
BURN BANS HAVE BEEN DECLARED BY SIX SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COUNTIES
(CARTER...JEFFERSON...MURRAY...LOVE...MARSHALL AND JOHNSTON). GARVIN
...MCCLAIN AND TILLMAN COUNTIES HAVE ALSO INSTITUTED BURN BANS FOR
THEIR COUNTIES DUE TO EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THREE COUNTIES
IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS (WILBARGER...KNOX...AND ARCHER) ALSO HAVE
COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY (OKLAHOMA MESONET)
HTTP://WWW.MESONET.ORG
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
OKLAHOMA FORESTRY SERVICES
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE
HTTP://TEXASFORESTSERVICE.TAMU.EDU/MAIN/DEFAULT.ASPX
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING
NOAA/ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT
HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICE...THE USDA...USACE AND THE USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT...
NWS FORECAST OFFICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
120 DAVID L. BOREN BLVD.
SUITE 2400
NORMAN, OK 73072
PHONE: (405) 325-3816
E-MAIL: SR-OUN.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV