REPORTED BY GREG WHITWORTH
Models are finally coming to some agreement about the location, timing and impact of the final winter storm of the season. This storm has the potential to put OKC in the record books as the snowiest winter ever if OKC can get 4 1/2 inches.
The 0Z NAM has come a little more in line with the previous GFS runs as far as location and timing of this storm are concerned. For Oklahoma City, I am thinking 2-4 inches, not the "similar to the record blizzard" predicted on TV, at least not in Oklahoma City. Blizzard like conditions will occur due to the winds, but the snowfall amounts don't look as high until you get northeast of Tulsa. However, keep in mind drifting due to high winds may give the appearance of more than 4 inches in OKC.
Location:
Snow will fall northeast of a line from near Lubbock to Abilene, TX and across nearly the entire state of Oklahoma. The only area that is not expected to see much if any snow is south of a line from Frederick to Ardmore to DeQueen, AR.
Amounts:
The most significant snows will fall north of I-40, with the heaviest snow by far impacting areas from Tulsa into southwest and central Missouri, where nearly a foot of snow is expected, northeast of Claremore, OK into Missouri. 1-3" north of a line from Altus to Ada to northern McCurtain Co. This includes the southern
sides of Oklahoma City. 1-3" across the western panhandle from Guymon west.
3-5" north of a line from Elk City to Bethany to Chandler and from Chandler to Checotah to Van Buren, Arkansas. Also 3-6" from east of Guymon across the eastern Texas panhandle. 5-8" north of a line from Gage to Stillwater to Muskogee to Tahlequah 7-12" from northeast of Ponca City to Tulsa to north of Tahlequah
Nearly a foot across far northeast OK, eastern Kansas, western Missouri but south of Kansas City and Columbia where about half a foot of snow is expected.
See the attached graphic:
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif Timing:
By 1 pm, the front should extend from Cherokee to Erick, through much of northwest OK. Showers and thunderstorms, some heavy to severe, may develop by 3 pm from near Hobart to Ponca City. This is ahead of the cold air. Tornadoes do not appear to be a threat, however gusty winds and large hail appear likely. The storms should move northeast. Vertical velocity fields from the NAM model indicate the strongest storms may occur southwest and south of OKC from near Fort Cobb to Norman.
The front extends from Ponca City to just west of OKC to Altus by 7 pm. The front should clear the Oklahoma City metro area during the 9 pm hour.
Snow should begin in northwest Oklahoma by 7 pm, and extend from near Ponca City to west of Altus by 1 am Saturday. A band of sleet for possibly 2-3 hours will accompany the changeover to snow. The changeover to sleet should extend from Pawnee to Oklahoma City to Frederick by 4 a.m. Saturday, with snow beginning in this area near sunrise.
At sunrise, the changeover to sleet then snow should extend from Tulsa to west of Ardmore. By this time, the front should extend from south-central Missouri to Fort Smith, AR to Dallas, TX. By 1 pm, the changeover should extend from east-central Missouri to far northwest Arkansas to south of McAlester, with snow pushing into the Arkansas River valley by sundown.
Blizzard like winds of 30 to 50 mph appear possible just behind the front. Expect road closures to be common across the northern 3 rows (deep) of counties, starting Saturday afternoon. The winds should gradually subside in western Oklahoma by sunset on Saturday.
Snow will taper off from West to east, ending in the panhandle by 11 am Saturday, and ending
from Ponca City to west of Oklahoma City to Lawton by sunset Saturday evening. Snow should
end in Oklahoma City by about 2 am Sunday morning. This is when the trouble begins.
The snow stalls across eastern Oklahoma and remains there through much of the night east of a line from Ponca City to just east of Oklahoma City to Ada. This will cause heavy accumulations, especially across northeast Oklahoma where heavier bands are expected closer to the track of the low. Snow will continue across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, including Muskogee, all areas east of Tulsa, and staying mainly south of the Missouri River, through Sunday night going into Monday, at midnight. The duration of this event would also favor very heavy accumulations, probably of disaster declaration levels,across much of southwest Missouri, southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma north and east of Tulsa.
Winds will finally die down in Central Oklahoma by around noon on Sunday when the system begins to pull away.
